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Simona Waltert vs Lucrezia Stefanini (10)

WTA · Chennai Open
Round 2 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Chennai, India

LS
Our pick
LSLucrezia Stefanini
61% to win
ModelWaltert 39%Stefanini 61%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

How it plays out

62%straight sets
38%goes to a third set
22.2games on average (15 to 31, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

SW 2-023%
SW 2-117%
LS 2-121%
LS 2-039%

Fair game spread: Stefanini by about 2.5 games; fair total 20.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent WTA matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aWaltert +153
Stefanini -153 fair
Game spreadn/aWaltert +2.5 fair
Total gamesn/a20.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Lucrezia Stefanini can win

  1. Higher rating for this match: 1587 to Waltert's 1499 (every tour result since 2010, weighted by who it came against, with hard counting extra)
  2. Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 1559 to Waltert's 1444
  3. Fresher legs: 16 games played in the last three days to Waltert's 28
  4. More matches on hard: 114 to Waltert's 64
  5. Seeded 10; Waltert is unseeded
  6. Simulation: Stefanini wins in straight sets 39% of the time

Disadvantages Why Lucrezia Stefanini may not

  1. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  2. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  3. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  4. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  5. Upset odds: Waltert wins about 1 time in 3, and takes at least a set 61% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

SW WaltertLS Stefanini
–Seed10
SUIFromITA
1499Rating for this match1587
1555Rating, all surfaces1616
1444Rating, hard courts only1559
5-5Last 10 matches7-3
197Tour-level matches since 2010194
64Matches on hard114
1 day agoLast match1 day ago
2Matches in the last 2 weeks3

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.

Head to head

No tour-level meeting since 2010.

Last 5 matches

SW Simona Waltert

  • WSahaja Yamalapalli6-4 3-6 6-3Chennai Open · R1
  • LJil Teichmann7-5 6-2Guangzhou Open · R1
  • LAnhelina Kalinina6-4 3-6 6-3BNB Ningbo Open · Q1
  • LHimeno Sakatsume5-7 6-4 6-0Samsun Open · QF
  • WLinda Klimovicova6-3 6-2Samsun Open · R2

LS Lucrezia Stefanini

  • WRada Zolotareva6-2 6-2Chennai Open · R1
  • LAyla Aksu2-6 6-4 6-3Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open · R2
  • WIsabella Maria Serban6-3 6-2Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open · R1
  • LBianca Andreescu6-2 7-5RoveretOpen Città della Pace · QF
  • WHarmony Tan6-2 6-3RoveretOpen Città della Pace · R2

Player news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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