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Antonia Ruzic vs Alina Charaeva

WTA · Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open
Round 1 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Court 1, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

AC
Our pick
ACAlina Charaeva
59% to win
ModelRuzic 41%Charaeva 59%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

How it plays out

62%straight sets
38%goes to a third set
22.3games on average (16 to 31, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

AR 2-024%
AR 2-117%
AC 2-121%
AC 2-038%

Fair game spread: Charaeva by about 2.5 games; fair total 21.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent WTA matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aRuzic +142
Charaeva -142 fair
Game spreadn/aRuzic +2.5 fair
Total gamesn/a21.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Alina Charaeva can win

  1. Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1726 to Ruzic's 1599
  2. Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 1691 to Ruzic's 1595
  3. Simulation: Charaeva wins in straight sets 38% of the time

Disadvantages Why Alina Charaeva may not

  1. Ruzic · Fresher legs: 0 games played in the last three days to Charaeva's 44
  2. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  3. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  4. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  5. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  6. Upset odds: Ruzic wins about 1 time in 2, and takes at least a set 62% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

AR RuzicAC Charaeva
–Seed–
CROFromARM
1597Rating for this match1708
1599Rating, all surfaces1726
1595Rating, hard courts only1691
5-5Last 10 matches8-2
137Tour-level matches since 2010111
78Matches on hard67
7 days agoLast match2 days ago
3Matches in the last 2 weeks5

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.

Head to head

No tour-level meeting since 2010.

Last 5 matches

AR Antonia Ruzic

  • LClaire Liu4-6 7-6(5) 6-4Guangzhou Open · R1
  • LKatie Boulter3-6 6-3 6-3Kinoshita Group Japan Open · QF
  • WKayla Day6-4 ret.Kinoshita Group Japan Open · R2
  • WPaula Badosa3-6 6-4 6-3Kinoshita Group Japan Open · R1
  • LBianca Andreescu7-5 3-6 7-5RoveretOpen Città della Pace · R2

AC Alina Charaeva

  • WNoma Noha Akugue6-3 6-4Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open · F
  • WElsa Jacquemot6-2 4-6 6-1Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open · SF
  • WMarina Bassols Ribera6-4 6-4Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open · QF
  • WGabriela Knutson1-6 6-2 6-3Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open · R2
  • WEnola Chiesa6-4 6-1Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open · R1

Player news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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