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Mika Stojsavljevic vs Sofia Kenin

WTA · Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open
Round 1 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Centre Court, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

SK
Our pick
SKSofia Kenin
73% to win
ModelStojsavljevic 27%Kenin 73%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

How it plays out

66%straight sets
34%goes to a third set
21.6games on average (15 to 30, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

MS 2-014%
MS 2-113%
SK 2-121%
SK 2-052%

Fair game spread: Kenin by about 4.5 games; fair total 20.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent WTA matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aStojsavljevic +273
Kenin -273 fair
Game spreadn/aStojsavljevic +4.5 fair
Total gamesn/a20.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Sofia Kenin can win

  1. Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1556 to Stojsavljevic's 1397
  2. More matches on hard: 261 to Stojsavljevic's 4
  3. Fresher legs: 0 games played in the last three days to Stojsavljevic's 17
  4. Simulation: Kenin wins in straight sets 52% of the time

Disadvantages Why Sofia Kenin may not

  1. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  2. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  3. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  4. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  5. Upset odds: Stojsavljevic wins about 1 time in 4, and takes at least a set 48% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

MS StojsavljevicSK Kenin
–Seed–
GBRFromUSA
1394Rating for this match1530
1397Rating, all surfaces1556
1392Rating, hard courts only1503
3-7Last 10 matches2-8
17Tour-level matches since 2010369
4Matches on hard261
3 days agoLast match8 days ago
3Matches in the last 2 weeks2

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.

Head to head

No tour-level meeting since 2010.

Last 5 matches

MS Mika Stojsavljevic

  • LTatiana Prozorova6-4 6-1Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open · QF (qualifying)
  • WAlevtina Ibragimova1-6 6-2 6-1Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open · Q1
  • LAlexandra Eala6-1 6-2Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis · R1
  • LBelinda Bencic6-2 6-1Wimbledon · R1
  • LHimeno Sakatsume6-2 7-6(2)Lexus Nottingham Open · Q1

SK Sofia Kenin

  • LKaitlin Quevedo6-4 6-7(5) 6-4Guangzhou Open · R1
  • LKayla Day6-3 6-2Kinoshita Group Japan Open · R1
  • LSinja Kraus7-6(4) 6-4Kinoshita Group Japan Open · QF (qualifying)
  • WMei Yamaguchi2-6 6-0 6-1Kinoshita Group Japan Open · Q1
  • LKamilla Rakhimova6-0 6-3Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open · Q1

Player news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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