Maya Joint vs Maria Sakkari (4)
WTA · Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open
Round 2 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Centre Court, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
How it plays out
Set score (best of 3)
Fair game spread: Sakkari by about 0.5 games; fair total 21.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent WTA matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | n/a | Joint +109 Sakkari -109 fair |
| Game spread | n/a | Joint +0.5 fair |
| Total games | n/a | 21.5 fair |
No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.
Advantages Why Maria Sakkari can win
- Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1767 to Joint's 1712
- More matches on hard: 336 to Joint's 108
- Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 1747 to Joint's 1685
- Seeded 4; Joint is unseeded
- Simulation: Sakkari wins in straight sets 32% of the time
Disadvantages Why Maria Sakkari may not
- One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
- Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
- Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
- Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
- Upset odds: Joint wins about 1 time in 2, and takes at least a set 68% of the time
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| MJ Joint | MS Sakkari | |
|---|---|---|
| – | Seed | 4 |
| AUS | From | GRE |
| 1698 | Rating for this match | 1757 |
| 1712 | Rating, all surfaces | 1767 |
| 1685 | Rating, hard courts only | 1747 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 matches | 6-4 |
| 155 | Tour-level matches since 2010 | 510 |
| 108 | Matches on hard | 336 |
| 1 day ago | Last match | 2 days ago |
| 6 | Matches in the last 2 weeks | 2 |
Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.
Head to head
No tour-level meeting since 2010.
Last 5 matches
MJ Maya Joint
- WMaddison Inglis7-5 6-2Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open · R1
- LKamilla Rakhimova7-5 5-7 6-1Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis · QF
- WCristina Bucsa6-1 2-6 6-4Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis · R2
- WSorana Cirstea6-3 7-6(4)Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis · R1
- WMai Hontama7-5 6-3Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis · QF (qualifying)
MS Maria Sakkari
- WCarol Young Suh Lee6-1 6-4Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open · R1
- LYulia Putintseva6-4 3-6 6-1Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis · R1
- LMaja Chwalinska6-0 3-6 7-5Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open · QF
- WMia Pohankova6-1 6-4Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open · R3
- WMarta Kostyuk4-6 6-2 6-2Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open · R2
Player news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Your pick
Locks at the first serve · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own
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