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Claire Liu vs Katie Boulter (8)

WTA · Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open
Round 2 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Centre Court, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

KB
Our pick
KBKatie Boulter
61% to win
ModelLiu 39%Boulter 61%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

How it plays out

62%straight sets
38%goes to a third set
22.2games on average (15 to 31, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

CL 2-023%
CL 2-117%
KB 2-121%
KB 2-040%

Fair game spread: Boulter by about 2.5 games; fair total 20.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent WTA matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aLiu +154
Boulter -154 fair
Game spreadn/aLiu +2.5 fair
Total gamesn/a20.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Katie Boulter can win

  1. Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1736 to Liu's 1652
  2. Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 1684 to Liu's 1603
  3. Seeded 8; Liu is unseeded
  4. Simulation: Boulter wins in straight sets 40% of the time

Disadvantages Why Katie Boulter may not

  1. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  2. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  3. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  4. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  5. Upset odds: Liu wins about 1 time in 3, and takes at least a set 60% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

CL LiuKB Boulter
–Seed8
USAFromGBR
1628Rating for this match1710
1652Rating, all surfaces1736
1603Rating, hard courts only1684
5-5Last 10 matches6-4
234Tour-level matches since 2010251
154Matches on hard167
2 days agoLast match2 days ago
3Matches in the last 2 weeks4

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.

Head to head

No tour-level meeting since 2010.

Last 5 matches

CL Claire Liu

  • WTatiana Prozorova6-2 6-4Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open · R1
  • LXinran Sun7-5 7-6(2)Guangzhou Open · QF
  • WAntonia Ruzic4-6 7-6(5) 6-4Guangzhou Open · R1
  • LMagda Linette6-4 6-3Kinoshita Group Japan Open · R1
  • WMaddison Inglis6-4 6-3Kinoshita Group Japan Open · QF (qualifying)

KB Katie Boulter

  • WViktorija Golubic6-2 7-6(2)Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open · R1
  • LKaterina Siniakova6-1 6-4Kinoshita Group Japan Open · SF
  • WAntonia Ruzic3-6 6-3 6-3Kinoshita Group Japan Open · QF
  • WViktorija Golubic6-2 6-1Kinoshita Group Japan Open · R2
  • WHimeno Sakatsume6-3 6-1Kinoshita Group Japan Open · R1

Player news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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