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Sorana Cirstea (1) vs Mary Stoiana

WTA · Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open
Round 2 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

MS
Our pick
SCSorana Cirstea
71% to win
ModelCirstea 71%Stoiana 29%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

How it plays out

65%straight sets
35%goes to a third set
21.8games on average (15 to 30, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

SC 2-049%
SC 2-121%
MS 2-114%
MS 2-016%

Fair game spread: Cirstea by about 4.5 games; fair total 20.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent WTA matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aCirstea -239
Stoiana +239 fair
Game spreadn/aCirstea -4.5 fair
Total gamesn/a20.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Sorana Cirstea can win

  1. Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1858 to Stoiana's 1690
  2. More matches on hard: 414 to Stoiana's 39
  3. Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 1804 to Stoiana's 1637
  4. Seeded 1; Stoiana is unseeded
  5. Simulation: Cirstea wins in straight sets 49% of the time

Disadvantages Why Sorana Cirstea may not

  1. Stoiana · Fresher legs: 17 games played in the last three days to Cirstea's 32
  2. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  3. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  4. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  5. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  6. Upset odds: Stoiana wins about 1 time in 3, and takes at least a set 51% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

SC CirsteaMS Stoiana
1Seed–
ROMFromUSA
1831Rating for this match1664
1858Rating, all surfaces1690
1804Rating, hard courts only1637
5-5Last 10 matches7-3
658Tour-level matches since 201058
414Matches on hard39
1 day agoLast match2 days ago
3Matches in the last 2 weeks3

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.

Head to head

No tour-level meeting since 2010.

Last 5 matches

SC Sorana Cirstea

  • WMaria Timofeeva7-6(6) 1-6 7-5Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open · R1
  • LMaya Joint6-3 7-6(4)Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis · R1
  • LSara Bejlek7-6(3) 6-4BNB Ningbo Open · R2
  • WShi Han6-3 6-2BNB Ningbo Open · R1
  • LGuo Hanyu1-6 7-6(6) 7-5Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open · R1

MS Mary Stoiana

  • WVenus Williams6-2 6-3Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open · R1
  • LKaterina Siniakova6-1 6-2Kinoshita Group Japan Open · QF
  • WMoyuka Uchijima6-2 2-6 6-3Kinoshita Group Japan Open · R2
  • WOleksandra Oliynykova6-2 6-3Kinoshita Group Japan Open · R1
  • WSayaka Ishii6-4 7-5Kinoshita Group Japan Open · QF (qualifying)

Player news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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