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Wozuko Mdlulwa vs Noma Noha Akugue (2)

WTA · Angola Ladies Open
Round 1 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Lwena Court, Luanda, Angola

NA
Our pick
NANoma Noha Akugue
82% to win
ModelMdlulwa 18%Akugue 82%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

How it plays out

71%straight sets
29%goes to a third set
20.7games on average (15 to 30, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

WM 2-09%
WM 2-19%
NA 2-120%
NA 2-062%

Fair game spread: Akugue by about 5.5 games; fair total 19.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent WTA matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aMdlulwa +447
Akugue -447 fair
Game spreadn/aMdlulwa +5.5 fair
Total gamesn/a19.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Noma Noha Akugue can win

  1. Mdlulwa has only 0 tour-level matches we can rate (often a qualifier or wildcard), so the rating is mostly a starting guess
  2. Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1544 to Mdlulwa's 1400
  3. More matches on hard: 33 to Mdlulwa's 0
  4. Match play: Mdlulwa hasn't played a tour-level match in 400 days
  5. Seeded 2; Mdlulwa is unseeded
  6. Simulation: Akugue wins in straight sets 62% of the time

Disadvantages Why Noma Noha Akugue may not

  1. Mdlulwa · Fresher legs: 0 games played in the last three days to Akugue's 38
  2. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  3. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  4. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  5. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  6. Upset odds: Mdlulwa wins about 1 time in 5, and takes at least a set 38% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

WM MdlulwaNA Akugue
–Seed2
RSAFromGER
1400Rating for this match1513
1400Rating, all surfaces1544
1400Rating, hard courts only1483
–Last 10 matches7-3
0Tour-level matches since 2010123
0Matches on hard33
–Last match2 days ago
0Matches in the last 2 weeks5

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.

Head to head

No tour-level meeting since 2010.

Last 5 matches

WM Wozuko Mdlulwa

No tour-level match we can rate yet (often a qualifier or a wildcard).

NA Noma Noha Akugue

  • LAlina Charaeva6-3 6-4Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open · F
  • WAnna Blinkova6-4 6-3Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open · SF
  • WAyla Aksu6-4 6-1Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open · QF
  • WLinda Klimovicova6-4 6-3Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open · R2
  • WDanka Kovinic7-6(4) 6-1Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open · R1

Player news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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