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Sofya Lansere (8) vs Kristina Novak

WTA · Angola Ladies Open
Round 2 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Lwena Court, Luanda, Angola

KN
Our pick
SLSofya Lansere
65% to win
ModelLansere 65%Novak 35%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

How it plays out

63%straight sets
37%goes to a third set
22.1games on average (15 to 31, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

SL 2-043%
SL 2-121%
KN 2-116%
KN 2-020%

Fair game spread: Lansere by about 3.5 games; fair total 20.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent WTA matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aLansere -184
Novak +184 fair
Game spreadn/aLansere -3.5 fair
Total gamesn/a20.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Sofya Lansere can win

  1. Novak has only 9 tour-level matches we can rate (often a qualifier or wildcard), so the rating is mostly a starting guess
  2. More matches on hard: 24 to Novak's 7
  3. Higher rating for this match: 1374 to Novak's 1353 (every tour result since 2010, weighted by who it came against, with hard counting extra)
  4. Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 1400 to Novak's 1371
  5. Seeded 8; Novak is unseeded
  6. Simulation: Lansere wins in straight sets 43% of the time

Disadvantages Why Sofya Lansere may not

  1. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  2. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  3. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  4. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  5. Upset odds: Novak wins about 1 time in 3, and takes at least a set 57% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

SL LansereKN Novak
8Seed–
RUSFromSLO
1374Rating for this match1353
1348Rating, all surfaces1336
1400Rating, hard courts only1371
4-6Last 10 matches4-5
38Tour-level matches since 20109
24Matches on hard7
todayLast match1 day ago
1Matches in the last 2 weeks1

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.

Head to head

No tour-level meeting since 2010.

Last 5 matches

SL Sofya Lansere

  • WAngella Okutoyi6-0 7-5Angola Ladies Open · R1
  • LJessica Bouzas Maneiro6-2 6-2Jingshan Tennis Open · QF
  • WSofia Costoulas6-3 6-4Jingshan Tennis Open · R2
  • WKatarina Zavatska6-3 6-0Jingshan Tennis Open · R1
  • LAoi Ito6-4 6-4Singapore Tennis Open presented by BNP Paribas · Q1

KN Kristina Novak

  • WWarona Mdlulwa6-1 6-3Angola Ladies Open · R1
  • LCaroline Werner6-1 6-1RoveretOpen Città della Pace · Q1
  • LWeronika Falkowska2-6 7-6(7) 6-2Zavarovalnica Triglav Ljubljana · R1
  • LHaley Giavara7-5 4-6 6-4Queretaro Open · QF (qualifying)
  • WMarian Gomez Pezuela Cano6-3 6-4Queretaro Open · Q1

Player news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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