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Despina Papamichail vs Renata Zarazua (2)

WTA · Reto Win Tennis Cali Open
Round 2 · Clay · Best of 3 · · Campo 3, Cali, Colombia

RZ
Our pick
RZRenata Zarazua
66% to win
ModelPapamichail 34%Zarazua 66%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

How it plays out

70%straight sets
30%goes to a third set
21.5games on average (15 to 31, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

DP 2-021%
DP 2-113%
RZ 2-117%
RZ 2-049%

Fair game spread: Zarazua by about 3.5 games; fair total 19.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent WTA matches on clay, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aPapamichail +194
Zarazua -194 fair
Game spreadn/aPapamichail +3.5 fair
Total gamesn/a19.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Renata Zarazua can win

  1. Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1574 to Papamichail's 1425
  2. Head to head: leads 1-0 in tour-level meetings since 2010
  3. Fresher legs: 14 games played in the last three days to Papamichail's 30
  4. Better on clay: a clay-court rating of 1497 to Papamichail's 1455
  5. Seeded 2; Papamichail is unseeded
  6. Simulation: Zarazua wins in straight sets 49% of the time

Disadvantages Why Renata Zarazua may not

  1. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  2. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  3. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  4. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  5. Upset odds: Papamichail wins about 1 time in 3, and takes at least a set 51% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

DP PapamichailRZ Zarazua
–Seed2
GREFromMEX
1440Rating for this match1535
1425Rating, all surfaces1574
1455Rating, clay courts only1497
4-6Last 10 matches5-5
143Tour-level matches since 2010235
69Matches on clay80
todayLast match1 day ago
2Matches in the last 2 weeks1

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the clay-court one, half and half.

Head to head: Papamichail 0-1 Zarazua

  • RZEngie Open presented by MundoTênis Tours · R26-4 6-2Nov 2023

Tour-level singles since 2010, latest first (up to five). Scores read from the winner's side.

Last 5 matches

DP Despina Papamichail

  • WMaria Lourdes Carle6-2 5-7 6-4Reto Win Tennis Cali Open · R1
  • LNauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva7-5 1-6 6-3Curitiba Open · R1
  • LTamara Zidansek6-4 6-2Vanda Pharmaceuticals Mallorca Women's Championships · R1
  • LGuiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales6-3 6-3Delta Motors Tolentino Open · R1
  • LYasmine Kabbaj6-1 7-5BBVA Open Internacional De Valencia · QF

RZ Renata Zarazua

  • WKatrina Scott6-1 6-1Reto Win Tennis Cali Open · R1
  • LRebecca Sramkova7-5 6-3Suzhou Open · SF
  • WKatarina Zavatska6-1 7-6(9)Suzhou Open · QF
  • WDarya Astakhova4-0 ret.Suzhou Open · R2
  • WShi Han6-3 6-3Suzhou Open · R1

Player news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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