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Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Solana Sierra (3)

WTA · Reto Win Tennis Cali Open
Round 2 · Clay · Best of 3 · · Campo 1, Cali, Colombia

SS
Our pick
SSSolana Sierra
60% to win
ModelGormaz 40%Sierra 60%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

How it plays out

68%straight sets
32%goes to a third set
21.7games on average (15 to 31, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

LG 2-025%
LG 2-114%
SS 2-117%
SS 2-043%

Fair game spread: Sierra by about 3.5 games; fair total 19.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent WTA matches on clay, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aGormaz +152
Sierra -152 fair
Game spreadn/aGormaz +3.5 fair
Total gamesn/a19.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Solana Sierra can win

  1. Higher rating for this match: 1666 to Gormaz's 1558 (every tour result since 2010, weighted by who it came against, with clay counting extra)
  2. Better on clay: a clay-court rating of 1728 to Gormaz's 1560
  3. Head to head: leads 2-1 in tour-level meetings since 2010
  4. Seeded 3; Gormaz is unseeded
  5. Simulation: Sierra wins in straight sets 43% of the time

Disadvantages Why Solana Sierra may not

  1. Gormaz · More matches on clay: 95 to Sierra's 48
  2. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  3. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  4. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  5. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  6. Upset odds: Gormaz wins about 1 time in 3, and takes at least a set 57% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

LG GormazSS Sierra
–Seed3
ESPFromARG
1558Rating for this match1666
1556Rating, all surfaces1604
1560Rating, clay courts only1728
7-3Last 10 matches4-6
137Tour-level matches since 2010126
95Matches on clay48
1 day agoLast match2 days ago
4Matches in the last 2 weeks4

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the clay-court one, half and half.

Head to head: Gormaz 1-2 Sierra

  • SSWimbledon · Q26-4 6-4Jun 2025
  • SSMegasaray Hotels Open 3 · F6-3 6-4Apr 2025
  • LGBBVA Open Internacional De Valencia · R17-5 6-2Jun 2022

Tour-level singles since 2010, latest first (up to five). Scores read from the winner's side.

Last 5 matches

LG Leyre Romero Gormaz

  • WPolona Hercog6-0 6-1Reto Win Tennis Cali Open · R1
  • LJulia Grabher1-6 6-4 7-5Curitiba Open · QF
  • WAntonia Vergara Rivera7-5 6-2Curitiba Open · R2
  • WJulia Konishi Camargo Silva6-2 6-1Curitiba Open · R1
  • LClara Burel6-4 6-3Lisboa Belem Open · F

SS Solana Sierra

  • WSelena Janicijevic6-4 6-2Reto Win Tennis Cali Open · R1
  • LJulia Riera1-6 6-4 7-5Curitiba Open · QF
  • WGabriela Ce7-6(2) 3-6 6-4Curitiba Open · R2
  • WJustina Gonzalez Daniele6-3 6-1Curitiba Open · R1
  • LDeniz Dilek6-3 6-3Turk Telekom Ankara Open · R1

Player news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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