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Jazmin Ortenzi vs Bianca Andreescu (8)

WTA · Reto Win Tennis Cali Open
Round 2 · Clay · Best of 3 · · Campo 1, Cali, Colombia

BA
Our pick
BABianca Andreescu
69% to win
ModelOrtenzi 31%Andreescu 69%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

How it plays out

71%straight sets
29%goes to a third set
21.2games on average (15 to 30, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

JO 2-019%
JO 2-112%
BA 2-117%
BA 2-052%

Fair game spread: Andreescu by about 4.5 games; fair total 19.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent WTA matches on clay, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aOrtenzi +224
Andreescu -224 fair
Game spreadn/aOrtenzi +4.5 fair
Total gamesn/a19.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Bianca Andreescu can win

  1. Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1726 to Ortenzi's 1478
  2. More matches on clay: 48 to Ortenzi's 26
  3. Better on clay: a clay-court rating of 1587 to Ortenzi's 1542
  4. Seeded 8; Ortenzi is unseeded
  5. Simulation: Andreescu wins in straight sets 52% of the time

Disadvantages Why Bianca Andreescu may not

  1. Ortenzi · Fresher legs: 28 games played in the last three days to Andreescu's 62
  2. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  3. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  4. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  5. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  6. Upset odds: Ortenzi wins about 1 time in 3, and takes at least a set 48% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

JO OrtenziBA Andreescu
–Seed8
ARGFromCAN
1510Rating for this match1657
1478Rating, all surfaces1726
1542Rating, clay courts only1587
5-5Last 10 matches10-0
47Tour-level matches since 2010227
26Matches on clay48
1 day agoLast match1 day ago
4Matches in the last 2 weeks6

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the clay-court one, half and half.

Head to head

No tour-level meeting since 2010.

Last 5 matches

JO Jazmin Ortenzi

  • WElizabeth Mandlik7-5 1-6 6-3Reto Win Tennis Cali Open · R1
  • LAlice Tubello2-6 6-2 6-3Curitiba Open · QF
  • WLourdes Ayala6-0 6-2Curitiba Open · R2
  • WVictoria Bosio7-5 6-2Curitiba Open · R1
  • LPolona Hercog6-3 3-6 6-3Lisboa Belem Open · R2

BA Bianca Andreescu

  • WTamara Zidansek6-2 6-3Reto Win Tennis Cali Open · R1
  • WTatjana Maria6-1 2-6 6-3Queretaro Open · F
  • WCarole Monnet6-3 7-5Queretaro Open · SF
  • WAlicia Herrero Linana6-1 6-1Queretaro Open · QF
  • WDiletta Cherubini6-2 6-3Queretaro Open · R2

Player news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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