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Alice Tubello vs Marina Bassols Ribera (7)

WTA · Reto Win Tennis Cali Open
Round 2 · Clay · Best of 3 · · Campo 5, Cali, Colombia

MR
Our pick
MRMarina Bassols Ribera
52% to win
ModelTubello 48%Ribera 52%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

How it plays out

68%straight sets
32%goes to a third set
21.8games on average (15 to 31, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

AT 2-032%
AT 2-116%
MR 2-117%
MR 2-036%

Fair game spread: Ribera by about 0.5 games; fair total 20.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent WTA matches on clay, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aTubello +110
Ribera -110 fair
Game spreadn/aTubello +0.5 fair
Total gamesn/a20.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Marina Bassols Ribera can win

  1. Fresher legs: 14 games played in the last three days to Tubello's 50
  2. More matches on clay: 78 to Tubello's 21
  3. Better on clay: a clay-court rating of 1610 to Tubello's 1499
  4. Higher rating for this match: 1584 to Tubello's 1545 (every tour result since 2010, weighted by who it came against, with clay counting extra)
  5. Seeded 7; Tubello is unseeded
  6. Simulation: Ribera wins in straight sets 36% of the time

Disadvantages Why Marina Bassols Ribera may not

  1. Tubello · Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1590 to Ribera's 1559
  2. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  3. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  4. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  5. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  6. Upset odds: Tubello wins about 1 time in 2, and takes at least a set 64% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

AT TubelloMR Ribera
–Seed7
FRAFromESP
1545Rating for this match1584
1590Rating, all surfaces1559
1499Rating, clay courts only1610
8-2Last 10 matches6-4
33Tour-level matches since 2010160
21Matches on clay78
todayLast matchtoday
6Matches in the last 2 weeks4

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the clay-court one, half and half.

Head to head

No tour-level meeting since 2010.

Last 5 matches

AT Alice Tubello

  • WRebeka Masarova6-3 6-0Reto Win Tennis Cali Open · R1
  • WJulia Grabher3-6 7-6(5) 7-6(2)Curitiba Open · F
  • WNauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva6-0 6-1Curitiba Open · SF
  • WJazmin Ortenzi2-6 6-2 6-3Curitiba Open · QF
  • WLuna Maria Cinalli6-4 6-3Curitiba Open · R2

MR Marina Bassols Ribera

  • WSofia Costoulas6-2 6-0Reto Win Tennis Cali Open · R1
  • LAlina Charaeva6-4 6-4Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open · QF
  • WErika Andreeva6-4 7-6(7)Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open · R2
  • WVictoria Jimenez Kasintseva6-3 6-3Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open · R1
  • LFrancesca Curmi3-6 6-3 6-3Vanda Pharmaceuticals Mallorca Women's Championships · R2

Player news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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