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Leolia Jeanjean (1) vs Carolina Alves

WTA · Reto Win Tennis Cali Open
Round 2 · Clay · Best of 3 · · Campo 1, Cali, Colombia

CA
Our pick
LJLeolia Jeanjean
85% to win
ModelJeanjean 85%Alves 15%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 85% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

How it plays out

79%straight sets
21%goes to a third set
19.6games on average (14 to 29, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

LJ 2-071%
LJ 2-114%
CA 2-17%
CA 2-08%

Fair game spread: Jeanjean by about 6.5 games; fair total 17.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent WTA matches on clay, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aJeanjean -584
Alves +584 fair
Game spreadn/aJeanjean -6.5 fair
Total gamesn/a17.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Leolia Jeanjean can win

  1. Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1649 to Alves's 1235
  2. Better on clay: a clay-court rating of 1571 to Alves's 1241
  3. Head to head: leads 1-0 in tour-level meetings since 2010
  4. More matches on clay: 95 to Alves's 55
  5. Seeded 1; Alves is unseeded
  6. Simulation: Jeanjean wins in straight sets 71% of the time

Disadvantages Why Leolia Jeanjean may not

  1. Alves · Fresher legs: 13 games played in the last three days to Jeanjean's 32
  2. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  3. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  4. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  5. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  6. Upset odds: Alves wins about 1 time in 7, and takes at least a set 29% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

LJ JeanjeanCA Alves
1Seed–
FRAFromBRA
1610Rating for this match1238
1649Rating, all surfaces1235
1571Rating, clay courts only1241
7-3Last 10 matches2-8
203Tour-level matches since 201073
95Matches on clay55
1 day agoLast match1 day ago
2Matches in the last 2 weeks2

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the clay-court one, half and half.

Head to head: Jeanjean 1-0 Alves

  • LJKia Open · R16-2 7-6(3)Sep 2026

Tour-level singles since 2010, latest first (up to five). Scores read from the winner's side.

Last 5 matches

LJ Leolia Jeanjean

  • WLucia Bronzetti6-7(2) 6-4 6-3Reto Win Tennis Cali Open · R1
  • LCarole Monnet6-4 6-1Queretaro Open · R1
  • LMariam Bolkvadze6-3 6-1Samsun Open · R1
  • WLois Boisson7-6(3) 4-6 6-4Adana Open · F
  • WAntonia Ruzic4-6 6-1 6-3Adana Open · SF

CA Carolina Alves

  • WMaria Paulina Perez Garcia6-1 6-0Reto Win Tennis Cali Open · R1
  • LJulia Grabher7-5 7-6(1)Curitiba Open · R1
  • LSuzan Lamens3-6 7-6(2) 6-2SP Open · R1
  • LLeolia Jeanjean6-2 7-6(3)Kia Open · R1
  • WAntonia Vergara Rivera6-2 6-4Kia Open · QF (qualifying)

Player news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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