Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid
Featherweight · 3 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Prelims · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
How it ends
| KO/TKO | Sub | Decision | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KN Nakamura | 49% | 9% | 20% | 77% |
| OS Schmid | 7% | 3% | 13% | 23% |
When it ends (3 rounds)
From our method model (each fighter's finishing record and style, the opponent's durability, the division and the number of rounds), and the rounds come from the timing of every UFC finish since 2010 in this weight group and fight length.
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nakamura -345 Schmid +285 | Nakamura -336 Schmid +336 fair |
| Total rounds | 1.5 (O -140 / U +110) over 55% | over 55% |
| Goes the distance | n/a | 32% |
Line: , DraftKings via ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. Total rounds: "over 1.5" wins if the fight passes 2:30 of round 2. Where the books post a total, the chance shown on the pick card's side is theirs (they price it better than our model).
Advantages Why Keiichiro Nakamura can win
- Stronger UFC résumé: a fight rating of 1462 to Schmid's 1419 (every UFC result, weighted by who it came against)
- Harder to hit: avoids 59% of significant strikes thrown at them, Schmid 53%
- More likely to win by KO/TKO: 49% of all outcomes to Schmid's 7%
- More likely to win by decision: 20% of all outcomes to Schmid's 13%
- More likely to win by submission: 9% of all outcomes to Schmid's 3%
- Simulation: Nakamura wins by KO/TKO 49%, by submission 9%, by decision 20% (of all outcomes), most often by KO/TKO
- The betting market agrees: Nakamura is -345 (75% with the book's margin removed)
Disadvantages Why Keiichiro Nakamura may not
- Schmid · Age: 26 years old, Nakamura is 28
- Schmid · Gets hit less: absorbs 4.1 significant strikes a minute to Nakamura's 4.5
- Schmid · Wrestling: 1.3 takedowns per 15 minutes to Nakamura's 0.8
- Schmid · Takedown defense: stops 63% of takedown attempts, Nakamura 52%
- One punch or one scramble can end any fight: the UFC favorite loses about one fight in three
- Late changes: a short-notice opponent, a missed weight or a bad weight cut can change a fight after our numbers were run
- Upset odds: Schmid wins about 1 time in 4, most often by decision (13% of all outcomes)
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Tale of the tape
| KN Nakamura | OS Schmid | |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1-0 | Pro record | 4-3-0 |
| 1-0 | UFC record | 0-1 |
| 1 KO · 0 Sub · 0 Dec | UFC wins | – |
| 28 | Age | 26 |
| 5'10" | Height | 6'0" |
| 70" | Reach | 71" |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| Japan | From | New Zealand |
| 9 months ago | Last fight | 6 months ago |
| 1462 | Fight rating | 1419 |
| 3.4 | Sig. strikes landed / min | 3.5 |
| 4.5 | Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 4.1 |
| 42% | Striking accuracy | 42% |
| 59% | Striking defense | 53% |
| 0.8 | Takedowns / 15 min | 1.3 |
| 52% | Takedown defense | 63% |
| 0.3 | Sub attempts / 15 min | 0.5 |
| 0.65 | Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.26 |
Rates are from UFC fights only (ufcstats), recent fights counting more, and start from the UFC average so a fighter with one short fight isn't judged on 90 seconds. Fight rating: an Elo rating from every UFC result (1440 for a debut).
Last 5 UFC fights
KN Keiichiro Nakamura
- WSebastian SzalayKO/TKO · R3 3:48Jan 2026
OS Ollie Schmid
- LMarwan RahikiKO/TKO · R1 2:47May 2026
Fighter news
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Your pick
Locks at the start of its part of the card · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every UFC fight since 1994 (strikes, takedowns, results and who they came against), blended with the betting market where the guard rail allows it. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own
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