Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba
Women's Strawweight · 3 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Main card · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
How it ends
| KO/TKO | Sub | Decision | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TS Suarez | 7% | 12% | 48% | 67% |
| VJ Jandiroba | 3% | 9% | 21% | 33% |
When it ends (3 rounds)
Each fighter's win chance is split the way the sportsbooks' method-of-victory prices split it (they price how fights end better than our own method model does), and the rounds come from the timing of every UFC finish since 2010 in this weight group and fight length.
Method of victory prices: Suarez by KO/TKO +1100 · Suarez by submission +600 · Suarez by decision -125 · Jandiroba by KO/TKO +2500 · Jandiroba by submission +750 · Jandiroba by decision +275
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Suarez -205 Jandiroba +170 | Suarez -202 Jandiroba +202 fair |
| Total rounds | 2.5 (O -360 / U +260) over 74% | over 72% |
| Goes the distance | 68% | 68% |
Line: , DraftKings via ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. Total rounds: "over 1.5" wins if the fight passes 2:30 of round 2. Where the books post a total, the chance shown on the pick card's side is theirs (they price it better than our model).
Advantages Why Tatiana Suarez can win
- Stronger UFC résumé: a fight rating of 1595 to Jandiroba's 1554 (every UFC result, weighted by who it came against)
- Age: 36 years old, Jandiroba is 38
- More accurate: lands 50% of significant strikes to Jandiroba's 43%
- Gets hit less: absorbs 2.5 significant strikes a minute to Jandiroba's 3.0
- Finisher: 6 of 9 UFC wins inside the distance; Jandiroba 4 of 9
- Reach: 66 inches to Jandiroba's 64
- Simulation: Suarez wins by KO/TKO 7%, by submission 12%, by decision 48% (of all outcomes), most often by decision
Disadvantages Why Tatiana Suarez may not
- Jandiroba · Harder to hit: avoids 55% of significant strikes thrown at them, Suarez 45%
- Jandiroba · Takedown defense: stops 70% of takedown attempts, Suarez 52%
- One punch or one scramble can end any fight: the UFC favorite loses about one fight in three
- Late changes: a short-notice opponent, a missed weight or a bad weight cut can change a fight after our numbers were run
- Judges: close rounds can be scored either way, and about one UFC decision in five is split
- Small samples: a fighter's UFC numbers often come from a handful of fights
- Upset odds: Jandiroba wins about 1 time in 3, most often by decision (21% of all outcomes)
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Tale of the tape
| TS Suarez | VJ Jandiroba | |
|---|---|---|
| 13-1-0 | Pro record | 23-4-0 |
| 9-1 | UFC record | 9-4 |
| 1 KO · 5 Sub · 3 Dec | UFC wins | 1 KO · 3 Sub · 5 Dec |
| 36 | Age | 38 |
| 5'5" | Height | 5'3" |
| 66" | Reach | 64" |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| USA | From | Brazil |
| 7 months ago | Last fight | 7 months ago |
| 1595 | Fight rating | 1554 |
| 2.4 | Sig. strikes landed / min | 2.5 |
| 2.5 | Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.0 |
| 50% | Striking accuracy | 43% |
| 45% | Striking defense | 55% |
| 3.5 | Takedowns / 15 min | 3.3 |
| 52% | Takedown defense | 70% |
| 0.6 | Sub attempts / 15 min | 1.2 |
| 0.07 | Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.09 |
Rates are from UFC fights only (ufcstats), recent fights counting more, and start from the UFC average so a fighter with one short fight isn't judged on 90 seconds. Fight rating: an Elo rating from every UFC result (1440 for a debut).
Last 5 UFC fights
TS Tatiana Suarez
- WLoopy GodinezSubmission · R2 2:29Apr 2026
- WAmanda LemosUnanimous decisionSep 2025
- LZhang Weili · titleUnanimous decisionFeb 2025
- WJessica AndradeSubmission · R2 1:31Aug 2023
- WMontana De La RosaSubmission · R2 2:51Feb 2023
VJ Virna Jandiroba
- WTabatha RicciUnanimous decisionApr 2026
- LMackenzie Dern · titleUnanimous decisionOct 2025
- WYan XiaonanUnanimous decisionApr 2025
- WAmanda LemosSubmission · R2 4:48Jul 2024
- WLoopy GodinezUnanimous decisionMar 2024
Fighter news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Your pick
Locks at the start of its part of the card · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every UFC fight since 1994 (strikes, takedowns, results and who they came against), blended with the betting market where the guard rail allows it. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own
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