Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando
Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Main card · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
How it ends
| KO/TKO | Sub | Decision | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE Elekana | 6% | 7% | 9% | 22% |
| LF Fernando | 37% | 12% | 30% | 78% |
When it ends (3 rounds)
Each fighter's win chance is split the way the sportsbooks' method-of-victory prices split it (they price how fights end better than our own method model does), and the rounds come from the timing of every UFC finish since 2010 in this weight group and fight length.
Method of victory prices: Elekana by KO/TKO +1000 · Elekana by submission +800 · Elekana by decision +650 · Fernando by KO/TKO +140 · Fernando by submission +650 · Fernando by decision +200
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Elekana +260 Fernando -325 | Elekana +360 Fernando -360 fair |
| Total rounds | 1.5 (O -188 / U +145) over 62% | over 56% |
| Goes the distance | 38% | 38% |
Line: , DraftKings via ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. Total rounds: "over 1.5" wins if the fight passes 2:30 of round 2. Where the books post a total, the chance shown on the pick card's side is theirs (they price it better than our model).
Advantages Why Lucas Fernando can win
- Harder to hit: avoids 62% of significant strikes thrown at them, Elekana 50%
- Gets hit less: absorbs 2.5 significant strikes a minute to Elekana's 3.5
- Lands more: 4.6 significant strikes a minute to Elekana's 3.0
- Reach: 80 inches to Elekana's 77
- Power: 1.29 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Elekana's 0.40
- More active: last fought 3 months ago, Elekana 9 months ago
- Simulation: Fernando wins by KO/TKO 37%, by submission 12%, by decision 30% (of all outcomes), most often by KO/TKO
Disadvantages Why Lucas Fernando may not
- Elekana · Stronger UFC résumé: a fight rating of 1481 to Fernando's 1461 (every UFC result, weighted by who it came against)
- Elekana · Takedown defense: stops 63% of takedown attempts, Fernando 51%
- Elekana · Control: spends 7% more of each fight in control than being controlled, Fernando 0%
- One punch or one scramble can end any fight: the UFC favorite loses about one fight in three
- Late changes: a short-notice opponent, a missed weight or a bad weight cut can change a fight after our numbers were run
- Judges: close rounds can be scored either way, and about one UFC decision in five is split
- Upset odds: Elekana wins about 1 time in 5, most often by decision (9% of all outcomes)
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Tale of the tape
| BE Elekana | LF Fernando | |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2-0 | Pro record | 14-3-0 |
| 3-1 | UFC record | 1-0 |
| 0 KO · 2 Sub · 1 Dec | UFC wins | 1 KO · 0 Sub · 0 Dec |
| 31 | Age | 30 |
| 6'3" | Height | 6'3" |
| 77" | Reach | 80" |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| USA | From | Brazil |
| 9 months ago | Last fight | 3 months ago |
| 1481 | Fight rating | 1461 |
| 3.0 | Sig. strikes landed / min | 4.6 |
| 3.5 | Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 2.5 |
| 51% | Striking accuracy | 52% |
| 50% | Striking defense | 62% |
| 1.1 | Takedowns / 15 min | 0.9 |
| 63% | Takedown defense | 51% |
| 0.8 | Sub attempts / 15 min | 0.3 |
| 0.40 | Knockdowns / 15 min | 1.29 |
Rates are from UFC fights only (ufcstats), recent fights counting more, and start from the UFC average so a fighter with one short fight isn't judged on 90 seconds. Fight rating: an Elo rating from every UFC result (1440 for a debut).
Last 5 UFC fights
BE Billy Elekana
- WJunior TafaSubmission · R2 3:18Jan 2026
- WKevin ChristianSubmission · R1 3:33Nov 2025
- WIbo AslanUnanimous decisionJul 2025
- LBogdan GuskovSubmission · R2 3:33Jan 2025
LF Lucas Fernando
- WRafael TobiasKO/TKO · R3 1:10Aug 2026
Fighter news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Your pick
Locks at the start of its part of the card · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every UFC fight since 1994 (strikes, takedowns, results and who they came against), blended with the betting market where the guard rail allows it. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own
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