Austin Bashi vs Lucas Brennan
Featherweight · 3 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Prelims · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
How it ends
| KO/TKO | Sub | Decision | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AB Bashi | 11% | 19% | 30% | 61% |
| LB Brennan | 12% | 7% | 20% | 39% |
When it ends (3 rounds)
From our method model (each fighter's finishing record and style, the opponent's durability, the division and the number of rounds), and the rounds come from the timing of every UFC finish since 2010 in this weight group and fight length.
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | n/a | Bashi -153 Brennan +153 fair |
| Goes the distance | n/a | 50% |
No line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually price a UFC fight within days of it being booked; a late replacement gets a new line within a day or so.
Advantages Why Austin Bashi can win
- Wrestling: 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes to Brennan's 0.8
- Control: spends 12% more of each fight in control than being controlled, Brennan 0%
- Takedown defense: stops 60% of takedown attempts, Brennan 51%
- Stronger UFC résumé: a fight rating of 1432 to Brennan's 1422 (every UFC result, weighted by who it came against)
- Lands more: 2.4 significant strikes a minute to Brennan's 2.1
- Gets hit less: absorbs 2.8 significant strikes a minute to Brennan's 2.9
- Simulation: Bashi wins by KO/TKO 11%, by submission 19%, by decision 30% (of all outcomes), most often by decision
Disadvantages Why Austin Bashi may not
- Brennan · Reach: 72 inches to Bashi's 70
- One punch or one scramble can end any fight: the UFC favorite loses about one fight in three
- Late changes: a short-notice opponent, a missed weight or a bad weight cut can change a fight after our numbers were run
- Judges: close rounds can be scored either way, and about one UFC decision in five is split
- Small samples: a fighter's UFC numbers often come from a handful of fights
- Upset odds: Brennan wins about 1 time in 3, most often by decision (20% of all outcomes)
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Tale of the tape
| AB Bashi | LB Brennan | |
|---|---|---|
| 14-2-0 | Pro record | 11-3-0 |
| 1-2 | UFC record | 0-1 |
| 0 KO · 1 Sub · 0 Dec | UFC wins | – |
| 25 | Age | 26 |
| 5'6" | Height | 5'10" |
| 70" | Reach | 72" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Southpaw |
| USA | From | USA |
| 4 months ago | Last fight | 6 months ago |
| 1432 | Fight rating | 1422 |
| 2.4 | Sig. strikes landed / min | 2.1 |
| 2.8 | Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 2.9 |
| 42% | Striking accuracy | 41% |
| 55% | Striking defense | 54% |
| 2.5 | Takedowns / 15 min | 0.8 |
| 60% | Takedown defense | 51% |
| 0.8 | Sub attempts / 15 min | 0.8 |
| 0.11 | Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.16 |
Rates are from UFC fights only (ufcstats), recent fights counting more, and start from the UFC average so a fighter with one short fight isn't judged on 90 seconds. Fight rating: an Elo rating from every UFC result (1440 for a debut).
Last 5 UFC fights
AB Austin Bashi
- LJose DelgadoUnanimous decisionJul 2026
- WJohn YannisSubmission · R1 3:39Aug 2025
- LChristian RodriguezUnanimous decisionJan 2025
LB Lucas Brennan
- LFrancis MarshallUnanimous decisionApr 2026
Fighter news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Your pick
Locks at the start of its part of the card · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every UFC fight since 1994 (strikes, takedowns, results and who they came against), blended with the betting market where the guard rail allows it. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own
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