Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes
Women's Flyweight · 3 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Prelims · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
How it ends
| KO/TKO | Sub | Decision | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS Silva | 8% | 18% | 45% | 71% |
| GF Fernandes | 4% | 3% | 22% | 29% |
When it ends (3 rounds)
From our method model (each fighter's finishing record and style, the opponent's durability, the division and the number of rounds), and the rounds come from the timing of every UFC finish since 2010 in this weight group and fight length.
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Silva -230 Fernandes +190 | Silva -246 Fernandes +246 fair |
| Total rounds | 2.5 (O -180 / U +140) over 61% | over 70% |
| Goes the distance | n/a | 67% |
Line: , DraftKings via ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. Total rounds: "over 1.5" wins if the fight passes 2:30 of round 2. Where the books post a total, the chance shown on the pick card's side is theirs (they price it better than our model).
Advantages Why Karine Silva can win
- Gets hit less: absorbs 2.8 significant strikes a minute to Fernandes's 5.0
- Stronger UFC résumé: a fight rating of 1485 to Fernandes's 1442 (every UFC result, weighted by who it came against)
- Durability: stopped by KO/TKO in 0 of 8 UFC fights; Fernandes in 1 of 6
- Wrestling: 1.7 takedowns per 15 minutes to Fernandes's 0.7
- Submission threat: 1.1 attempts per 15 minutes to Fernandes's 0.3
- Simulation: Silva wins by KO/TKO 8%, by submission 18%, by decision 45% (of all outcomes), most often by decision
- The betting market agrees: Silva is -230 (67% with the book's margin removed)
Disadvantages Why Karine Silva may not
- Fernandes · Takedown defense: stops 70% of takedown attempts, Silva 38%
- Fernandes · Lands more: 3.6 significant strikes a minute to Silva's 2.4
- Fernandes · More accurate: lands 46% of significant strikes to Silva's 42%
- One punch or one scramble can end any fight: the UFC favorite loses about one fight in three
- Late changes: a short-notice opponent, a missed weight or a bad weight cut can change a fight after our numbers were run
- Judges: close rounds can be scored either way, and about one UFC decision in five is split
- Upset odds: Fernandes wins about 1 time in 3, most often by decision (22% of all outcomes)
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Tale of the tape
| KS Silva | GF Fernandes | |
|---|---|---|
| 19-7-0 | Pro record | 11-4-0 |
| 5-3 | UFC record | 3-3 |
| 0 KO · 3 Sub · 2 Dec | UFC wins | 0 KO · 1 Sub · 2 Dec |
| 33 | Age | 33 |
| 5'5" | Height | 5'6" |
| 67" | Reach | 66" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Southpaw |
| Brazil | From | Brazil |
| 7 months ago | Last fight | 7 months ago |
| 1485 | Fight rating | 1442 |
| 2.4 | Sig. strikes landed / min | 3.6 |
| 2.8 | Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 5.0 |
| 42% | Striking accuracy | 46% |
| 55% | Striking defense | 54% |
| 1.7 | Takedowns / 15 min | 0.7 |
| 38% | Takedown defense | 70% |
| 1.1 | Sub attempts / 15 min | 0.3 |
| 0.16 | Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.25 |
Rates are from UFC fights only (ufcstats), recent fights counting more, and start from the UFC average so a fighter with one short fight isn't judged on 90 seconds. Fight rating: an Elo rating from every UFC result (1440 for a debut).
Last 5 UFC fights
KS Karine Silva
- LJasmine JasudaviciusUnanimous decisionApr 2026
- LMaycee BarberUnanimous decisionDec 2025
- WDione BarbosaUnanimous decisionAug 2025
- LViviane AraujoUnanimous decisionNov 2024
- WAriane da SilvaUnanimous decisionApr 2024
GF Gabriella Fernandes
- LCasey O'NeillKO/TKO · R1 3:11Mar 2026
- WJulija StoliarenkoUnanimous decisionAug 2025
- WWang CongSubmission · R2 3:49Nov 2024
- WCarli JudiceSplit decisionJun 2024
- LTereza BledaUnanimous decisionJun 2023
Fighter news
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Your pick
Locks at the start of its part of the card · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every UFC fight since 1994 (strikes, takedowns, results and who they came against), blended with the betting market where the guard rail allows it. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own
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