Seokhyeon Ko vs Wellington Turman
Welterweight · 3 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Prelims · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
How it ends
| KO/TKO | Sub | Decision | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Ko | 38% | 12% | 38% | 88% |
| WT Turman | 3% | 3% | 6% | 12% |
When it ends (3 rounds)
Each fighter's win chance is split the way the sportsbooks' method-of-victory prices split it (they price how fights end better than our own method model does), and the rounds come from the timing of every UFC finish since 2010 in this weight group and fight length.
Method of victory prices: Ko by KO/TKO +130 · Ko by submission +650 · Ko by decision +130 · Turman by KO/TKO +2200 · Turman by submission +1800 · Turman by decision +900
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ko -750 Turman +525 | Ko -701 Turman +701 fair |
| Total rounds | 1.5 (O -215 / U +165) over 64% | over 64% |
| Goes the distance | 45% | 44% |
Line: , DraftKings via ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. Total rounds: "over 1.5" wins if the fight passes 2:30 of round 2. Where the books post a total, the chance shown on the pick card's side is theirs (they price it better than our model).
Advantages Why Seokhyeon Ko can win
- Gets hit less: absorbs 2.2 significant strikes a minute to Turman's 4.1
- Stronger UFC résumé: a fight rating of 1461 to Turman's 1392 (every UFC result, weighted by who it came against)
- Harder to hit: avoids 61% of significant strikes thrown at them, Turman 49%
- Wrestling: 2.6 takedowns per 15 minutes to Turman's 1.4
- Durability: stopped by KO/TKO in 0 of 3 UFC fights; Turman in 2 of 9
- Hard to submit: tapped in 0 of 3 UFC fights; Turman in 1 of 9
- Control: spends 31% more of each fight in control than being controlled, Turman 0%
Disadvantages Why Seokhyeon Ko may not
- Turman · Age: 30 years old, Ko is 33
- Turman · More accurate: lands 50% of significant strikes to Ko's 47%
- Turman · Lands more: 3.5 significant strikes a minute to Ko's 3.2
- One punch or one scramble can end any fight: the UFC favorite loses about one fight in three
- Late changes: a short-notice opponent, a missed weight or a bad weight cut can change a fight after our numbers were run
- Judges: close rounds can be scored either way, and about one UFC decision in five is split
- Upset odds: Turman wins about 1 time in 8, most often by decision (6% of all outcomes)
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Tale of the tape
| SK Ko | WT Turman | |
|---|---|---|
| 13-3-0 | Pro record | 18-8-0 |
| 2-1 | UFC record | 3-6 |
| 0 KO · 0 Sub · 2 Dec | UFC wins | 0 KO · 1 Sub · 2 Dec |
| 33 | Age | 30 |
| 5'10" | Height | 6'0" |
| 71" | Reach | 72" |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| South Korea | From | Brazil |
| 4 months ago | Last fight | 2.9 years ago |
| 1461 | Fight rating | 1392 |
| 3.2 | Sig. strikes landed / min | 3.5 |
| 2.2 | Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 4.1 |
| 47% | Striking accuracy | 50% |
| 61% | Striking defense | 49% |
| 2.6 | Takedowns / 15 min | 1.4 |
| 53% | Takedown defense | 46% |
| 0.4 | Sub attempts / 15 min | 0.7 |
| 0.09 | Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.10 |
Rates are from UFC fights only (ufcstats), recent fights counting more, and start from the UFC average so a fighter with one short fight isn't judged on 90 seconds. Fight rating: an Elo rating from every UFC result (1440 for a debut).
Last 5 UFC fights
SK Seokhyeon Ko
- LJean-Paul LebosnoyaniUnanimous decisionJul 2026
- WPhil RoweUnanimous decisionNov 2025
- WOban ElliottUnanimous decisionJun 2025
WT Wellington Turman
- LJared GoodenSubmission · R2 1:11Dec 2023
- LRandy BrownUnanimous decisionJun 2023
- LAndre PetroskiUnanimous decisionNov 2022
- WMisha CirkunovSubmission · R2 1:29Feb 2022
- WSam AlveySplit decisionAug 2021
Fighter news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Your pick
Locks at the start of its part of the card · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every UFC fight since 1994 (strikes, takedowns, results and who they came against), blended with the betting market where the guard rail allows it. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own
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