Jonny Parsons vs José Souza
Welterweight · 3 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Prelims · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
How it ends
| KO/TKO | Sub | Decision | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Parsons | 13% | 3% | 13% | 29% |
| JS Souza | 24% | 9% | 38% | 71% |
When it ends (3 rounds)
From our method model (each fighter's finishing record and style, the opponent's durability, the division and the number of rounds), and the rounds come from the timing of every UFC finish since 2010 in this weight group and fight length.
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Parsons +190 Souza -230 | Parsons +248 Souza -248 fair |
| Total rounds | 2.5 (O EVEN / U -130) over 47% | over 56% |
| Goes the distance | n/a | 52% |
Line: , DraftKings via ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. Total rounds: "over 1.5" wins if the fight passes 2:30 of round 2. Where the books post a total, the chance shown on the pick card's side is theirs (they price it better than our model).
Advantages Why José Souza can win
- Age: 24 years old, Parsons is 35
- Reach: 79 inches to Parsons's 69
- More active: last fought 5 months ago, Parsons 3.3 years ago
- More likely to win by decision: 38% of all outcomes to Parsons's 13%
- More likely to win by KO/TKO: 24% of all outcomes to Parsons's 13%
- Simulation: Souza wins by KO/TKO 24%, by submission 9%, by decision 38% (of all outcomes), most often by decision
- The betting market agrees: Souza is -230 (67% with the book's margin removed)
Disadvantages Why José Souza may not
- Parsons · Harder to hit: avoids 59% of significant strikes thrown at them, Souza 56%
- Parsons · Wrestling: 1.1 takedowns per 15 minutes to Souza's 0.8
- Parsons · Power: 0.95 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Souza's 0.16
- Parsons · Takedown defense: stops 70% of takedown attempts, Souza 63%
- One punch or one scramble can end any fight: the UFC favorite loses about one fight in three
- Late changes: a short-notice opponent, a missed weight or a bad weight cut can change a fight after our numbers were run
- Upset odds: Parsons wins about 1 time in 3, most often by decision (13% of all outcomes)
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Tale of the tape
| JP Parsons | JS Souza | |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3-0 | Pro record | 9-1-0 |
| 1-0 | UFC record | 1-0 |
| 1 KO · 0 Sub · 0 Dec | UFC wins | 0 KO · 0 Sub · 1 Dec |
| 35 | Age | 24 |
| 5'9" | Height | 6'3" |
| 69" | Reach | 79" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| USA | From | Brazil |
| 3.3 years ago | Last fight | 5 months ago |
| 1463 | Fight rating | 1458 |
| 4.2 | Sig. strikes landed / min | 4.1 |
| 3.7 | Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.8 |
| 47% | Striking accuracy | 46% |
| 59% | Striking defense | 56% |
| 1.1 | Takedowns / 15 min | 0.8 |
| 70% | Takedown defense | 63% |
| 0.4 | Sub attempts / 15 min | 0.3 |
| 0.95 | Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.16 |
Rates are from UFC fights only (ufcstats), recent fights counting more, and start from the UFC average so a fighter with one short fight isn't judged on 90 seconds. Fight rating: an Elo rating from every UFC result (1440 for a debut).
Last 5 UFC fights
JP Jonny Parsons
- WDanny RobertsKO/TKO · R2 4:57Jul 2023
JS José Souza
- WDing MengSplit decisionMay 2026
Fighter news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Your pick
Locks at the start of its part of the card · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every UFC fight since 1994 (strikes, takedowns, results and who they came against), blended with the betting market where the guard rail allows it. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own
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