Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith
Bantamweight · 3 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Main card · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
How it ends
| KO/TKO | Sub | Decision | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DG Grant | 6% | 3% | 11% | 21% |
| ES Smith | 32% | 17% | 30% | 79% |
When it ends (3 rounds)
Each fighter's win chance is split the way the sportsbooks' method-of-victory prices split it (they price how fights end better than our own method model does), and the rounds come from the timing of every UFC finish since 2010 in this weight group and fight length.
Method of victory prices: Grant by KO/TKO +900 · Grant by submission +1800 · Grant by decision +450 · Smith by KO/TKO +180 · Smith by submission +450 · Smith by decision +200
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Grant +250 Smith -310 | Grant +385 Smith -385 fair |
| Total rounds | 2.5 (O -125 / U -105) over 52% | over 47% |
| Goes the distance | 43% | 42% |
Line: , DraftKings via ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. Total rounds: "over 1.5" wins if the fight passes 2:30 of round 2. Where the books post a total, the chance shown on the pick card's side is theirs (they price it better than our model).
Advantages Why Elijah Smith can win
- Age: 24 years old, Grant is 41
- Gets hit less: absorbs 2.5 significant strikes a minute to Grant's 4.4
- Wrestling: 1.6 takedowns per 15 minutes to Grant's 0.6
- Finisher: 2 of 3 UFC wins inside the distance; Grant 4 of 9
- Hard to submit: tapped in 0 of 3 UFC fights; Grant in 4 of 16
- Reach: 71 inches to Grant's 69
- More accurate: lands 50% of significant strikes to Grant's 46%
Disadvantages Why Elijah Smith may not
- Grant · Lands more: 6.1 significant strikes a minute to Smith's 3.6
- Grant · Takedown defense: stops 68% of takedown attempts, Smith 51%
- One punch or one scramble can end any fight: the UFC favorite loses about one fight in three
- Late changes: a short-notice opponent, a missed weight or a bad weight cut can change a fight after our numbers were run
- Judges: close rounds can be scored either way, and about one UFC decision in five is split
- Small samples: a fighter's UFC numbers often come from a handful of fights
- Upset odds: Grant wins about 1 time in 5, most often by decision (11% of all outcomes)
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Tale of the tape
| DG Grant | ES Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| 18-8-0 | Pro record | 10-1-0 |
| 9-7 | UFC record | 3-0 |
| 3 KO · 1 Sub · 5 Dec | UFC wins | 1 KO · 1 Sub · 1 Dec |
| 41 | Age | 24 |
| 5'8" | Height | 5'9" |
| 69" | Reach | 71" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| England | From | USA |
| 6 months ago | Last fight | 8 months ago |
| 1491 | Fight rating | 1500 |
| 6.1 | Sig. strikes landed / min | 3.6 |
| 4.4 | Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 2.5 |
| 46% | Striking accuracy | 50% |
| 53% | Striking defense | 54% |
| 0.6 | Takedowns / 15 min | 1.6 |
| 68% | Takedown defense | 51% |
| 0.2 | Sub attempts / 15 min | 0.9 |
| 0.27 | Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.52 |
Rates are from UFC fights only (ufcstats), recent fights counting more, and start from the UFC average so a fighter with one short fight isn't judged on 90 seconds. Fight rating: an Elo rating from every UFC result (1440 for a debut).
Last 5 UFC fights
DG Davey Grant
- WAdrian Luna MartinettiUnanimous decisionApr 2026
- LCharles JourdainSubmission · R1 3:05Oct 2025
- WDa'Mon BlackshearUnanimous decisionJul 2025
- WRamon TaverasUnanimous decisionDec 2024
- LDaniel MarcosSplit decisionJul 2023
ES Elijah Smith
- WSuYoung YouSubmission · R2 1:04Mar 2026
- WToshiomi KazamaKO/TKO · R1 4:10Aug 2025
- WVince MoralesUnanimous decisionFeb 2025
Fighter news
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Your pick
Locks at the start of its part of the card · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every UFC fight since 1994 (strikes, takedowns, results and who they came against), blended with the betting market where the guard rail allows it. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own
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