Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov
Featherweight · 3 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Prelims · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
How it ends
| KO/TKO | Sub | Decision | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Delano | 17% | 5% | 29% | 51% |
| MM Magomedov | 10% | 19% | 20% | 49% |
When it ends (3 rounds)
From our method model (each fighter's finishing record and style, the opponent's durability, the division and the number of rounds), and the rounds come from the timing of every UFC finish since 2010 in this weight group and fight length.
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Delano -115 Magomedov -105 | Delano -104 Magomedov +104 fair |
| Total rounds | 2.5 (O -105 / U -125) over 48% | over 54% |
| Goes the distance | n/a | 50% |
Line: , DraftKings via ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. Total rounds: "over 1.5" wins if the fight passes 2:30 of round 2. Where the books post a total, the chance shown on the pick card's side is theirs (they price it better than our model).
Advantages Why Jose Delano can win
- Lands more: 5.2 significant strikes a minute to Magomedov's 3.5
- More accurate: lands 55% of significant strikes to Magomedov's 46%
- Harder to hit: avoids 62% of significant strikes thrown at them, Magomedov 57%
- Takedown defense: stops 77% of takedown attempts, Magomedov 63%
- More likely to win by decision: 29% of all outcomes to Magomedov's 20%
- Simulation: Delano wins by KO/TKO 17%, by submission 5%, by decision 29% (of all outcomes), most often by decision
- The betting market agrees: Delano is -115 (51% with the book's margin removed)
Disadvantages Why Jose Delano may not
- Magomedov · Wrestling: 2.2 takedowns per 15 minutes to Delano's 0.8
- Magomedov · Age: 27 years old, Delano is 30
- Magomedov · Gets hit less: absorbs 3.4 significant strikes a minute to Delano's 4.0
- Magomedov · Submission threat: 1.3 attempts per 15 minutes to Delano's 0.3
- Magomedov · Stronger UFC résumé: a fight rating of 1463 to Delano's 1457 (every UFC result, weighted by who it came against)
- One punch or one scramble can end any fight: the UFC favorite loses about one fight in three
- Upset odds: Magomedov wins about 1 time in 2, most often by decision (20% of all outcomes)
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Tale of the tape
| JD Delano | MM Magomedov | |
|---|---|---|
| 17-3-0 | Pro record | 11-0-0 |
| 1-0 | UFC record | 1-0 |
| 0 KO · 0 Sub · 1 Dec | UFC wins | 0 KO · 1 Sub · 0 Dec |
| 30 | Age | 27 |
| 5'8" | Height | 5'9" |
| 70" | Reach | 70" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| Brazil | From | Kyrgyzstan |
| 7 months ago | Last fight | 5 months ago |
| 1457 | Fight rating | 1463 |
| 5.2 | Sig. strikes landed / min | 3.5 |
| 4.0 | Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.4 |
| 55% | Striking accuracy | 46% |
| 62% | Striking defense | 57% |
| 0.8 | Takedowns / 15 min | 2.2 |
| 77% | Takedown defense | 63% |
| 0.3 | Sub attempts / 15 min | 1.3 |
| 0.16 | Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.29 |
Rates are from UFC fights only (ufcstats), recent fights counting more, and start from the UFC average so a fighter with one short fight isn't judged on 90 seconds. Fight rating: an Elo rating from every UFC result (1440 for a debut).
Last 5 UFC fights
JD Jose Delano
- WRobert RuchalaUnanimous decisionApr 2026
MM Murtazali Magomedov
- WMelsik BaghdasaryanSubmission · R1 1:17Jun 2026
Fighter news
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Your pick
Locks at the start of its part of the card · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every UFC fight since 1994 (strikes, takedowns, results and who they came against), blended with the betting market where the guard rail allows it. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own
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