Mantas Kondratavičius vs Andre Petroski
Middleweight · 3 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Prelims · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
How it ends
| KO/TKO | Sub | Decision | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MK Kondratavičius | 32% | 8% | 37% | 76% |
| AP Petroski | 5% | 5% | 14% | 24% |
When it ends (3 rounds)
From our method model (each fighter's finishing record and style, the opponent's durability, the division and the number of rounds), and the rounds come from the timing of every UFC finish since 2010 in this weight group and fight length.
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kondratavičius -285 Petroski +230 | Kondratavičius -320 Petroski +320 fair |
| Total rounds | 1.5 (O +165 / U -215) over 36% | over 68% |
| Goes the distance | n/a | 50% |
Line: , DraftKings via ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. Total rounds: "over 1.5" wins if the fight passes 2:30 of round 2. Where the books post a total, the chance shown on the pick card's side is theirs (they price it better than our model).
Advantages Why Mantas Kondratavičius can win
- Age: 27 years old, Petroski is 35
- Lands more: 4.2 significant strikes a minute to Petroski's 2.7
- Gets hit less: absorbs 2.4 significant strikes a minute to Petroski's 3.2
- More accurate: lands 56% of significant strikes to Petroski's 47%
- Harder to hit: avoids 55% of significant strikes thrown at them, Petroski 52%
- Reach: 75 inches to Petroski's 73
- Simulation: Kondratavičius wins by KO/TKO 32%, by submission 8%, by decision 37% (of all outcomes), most often by decision
Disadvantages Why Mantas Kondratavičius may not
- Petroski · Wrestling: 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes to Kondratavičius's 1.7
- Petroski · Control: spends 24% more of each fight in control than being controlled, Kondratavičius 3%
- One punch or one scramble can end any fight: the UFC favorite loses about one fight in three
- Late changes: a short-notice opponent, a missed weight or a bad weight cut can change a fight after our numbers were run
- Judges: close rounds can be scored either way, and about one UFC decision in five is split
- Small samples: a fighter's UFC numbers often come from a handful of fights
- Upset odds: Petroski wins about 1 time in 4, most often by decision (14% of all outcomes)
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Tale of the tape
| MK Kondratavičius | AP Petroski | |
|---|---|---|
| 9-1-0 | Pro record | 13-7-0 |
| 1-0 | UFC record | 8-5 |
| 0 KO · 0 Sub · 1 Dec | UFC wins | 1 KO · 2 Sub · 5 Dec |
| 27 | Age | 35 |
| 6'2" | Height | 6'0" |
| 75" | Reach | 73" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Switch |
| Lithuania | From | USA |
| 8 months ago | Last fight | 6 months ago |
| 1455 | Fight rating | 1454 |
| 4.2 | Sig. strikes landed / min | 2.7 |
| 2.4 | Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.2 |
| 56% | Striking accuracy | 47% |
| 55% | Striking defense | 52% |
| 1.7 | Takedowns / 15 min | 2.5 |
| 84% | Takedown defense | 82% |
| 0.8 | Sub attempts / 15 min | 0.8 |
| 0.63 | Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.14 |
Rates are from UFC fights only (ufcstats), recent fights counting more, and start from the UFC average so a fighter with one short fight isn't judged on 90 seconds. Fight rating: an Elo rating from every UFC result (1440 for a debut).
Last 5 UFC fights
MK Mantas Kondratavičius
- WAntonio TrocoliUnanimous decisionMar 2026
AP Andre Petroski
- LCody BrundageKO/TKO · R2 0:44May 2026
- LCam RowstonKO/TKO · R1 2:41Sep 2025
- LEdmen ShahbazyanUnanimous decisionJun 2025
- WRodolfo VieiraUnanimous decisionFeb 2025
- WDylan BudkaUnanimous decisionSep 2024
Fighter news
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Your pick
Locks at the start of its part of the card · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every UFC fight since 1994 (strikes, takedowns, results and who they came against), blended with the betting market where the guard rail allows it. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own
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