Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli
Flyweight · 3 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Main card · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
How it ends
| KO/TKO | Sub | Decision | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MR Raposo | 7% | 7% | 20% | 34% |
| MD Degli | 17% | 11% | 39% | 66% |
When it ends (3 rounds)
From our method model (each fighter's finishing record and style, the opponent's durability, the division and the number of rounds), and the rounds come from the timing of every UFC finish since 2010 in this weight group and fight length.
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Raposo +190 Degli -230 | Raposo +194 Degli -194 fair |
| Total rounds | 2.5 (O -130 / U EVEN) over 53% | over 63% |
| Goes the distance | n/a | 59% |
Line: , DraftKings via ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. Total rounds: "over 1.5" wins if the fight passes 2:30 of round 2. Where the books post a total, the chance shown on the pick card's side is theirs (they price it better than our model).
Advantages Why Marcos Degli can win
- Reach: 67 inches to Raposo's 64
- More likely to win by decision: 39% of all outcomes to Raposo's 20%
- More likely to win by KO/TKO: 17% of all outcomes to Raposo's 7%
- More likely to win by submission: 11% of all outcomes to Raposo's 7%
- Simulation: Degli wins by KO/TKO 17%, by submission 11%, by decision 39% (of all outcomes), most often by decision
- The betting market agrees: Degli is -230 (67% with the book's margin removed)
Disadvantages Why Marcos Degli may not
- Raposo · UFC debut for Degli: first-time UFC fighters have won about 44% of the time against UFC veterans, and there is no UFC tape to rate them on
- One punch or one scramble can end any fight: the UFC favorite loses about one fight in three
- Late changes: a short-notice opponent, a missed weight or a bad weight cut can change a fight after our numbers were run
- Judges: close rounds can be scored either way, and about one UFC decision in five is split
- Small samples: a fighter's UFC numbers often come from a handful of fights
- Upset odds: Raposo wins about 1 time in 3, most often by decision (20% of all outcomes)
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Tale of the tape
| MR Raposo | MD Degli | |
|---|---|---|
| 11-3-0 | Pro record | 15-3-0 |
| 2-2 | UFC record | UFC debut |
| 0 KO · 0 Sub · 2 Dec | UFC wins | – |
| 28 | Age | 26 |
| 5'5" | Height | 5'6" |
| 64" | Reach | 67" |
| Switch | Stance | Orthodox |
| USA | From | Brazil |
| 5 months ago | Last fight | – |
| 1445 | Fight rating | 1440 |
| 2.3 | Sig. strikes landed / min | 3.5 |
| 3.0 | Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.5 |
| 43% | Striking accuracy | 45% |
| 60% | Striking defense | 55% |
| 1.6 | Takedowns / 15 min | 1.5 |
| 70% | Takedown defense | 63% |
| 0.1 | Sub attempts / 15 min | 0.5 |
| 0.08 | Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.31 |
Rates are from UFC fights only (ufcstats), recent fights counting more, and start from the UFC average so a fighter with one short fight isn't judged on 90 seconds. A fighter making a UFC debut shows UFC averages for these, not their own numbers. Fight rating: an Elo rating from every UFC result (1440 for a debut).
Last 5 UFC fights
MR Mitch Raposo
- WAllan NascimentoSplit decisionJun 2026
- WAzat MaksumUnanimous decisionOct 2025
- LSumudaerjiSplit decisionApr 2025
- LAndre LimaSplit decisionJun 2024
MD Marcos Degli
No UFC fights yet. Pro record 15-3-0.
Fighter news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Your pick
Locks at the start of its part of the card · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every UFC fight since 1994 (strikes, takedowns, results and who they came against), blended with the betting market where the guard rail allows it. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own
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