Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Johnny Walker
Main event · Heavyweight · 5 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Main card · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
How it ends
| KO/TKO | Sub | Decision | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WA Acosta | 49% | 5% | 16% | 70% |
| JW Walker | 18% | 6% | 6% | 30% |
When it ends (5 rounds)
Each fighter's win chance is split the way the sportsbooks' method-of-victory prices split it (they price how fights end better than our own method model does), and the rounds come from the timing of every UFC finish since 2010 in this weight group and fight length.
Method of victory prices: Acosta by KO/TKO -125 · Acosta by submission +1800 · Acosta by decision +450 · Walker by KO/TKO +300 · Walker by submission +1200 · Walker by decision +1100
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Acosta -230 Walker +190 | Acosta -231 Walker +231 fair |
| Total rounds | 1.5 (O -195 / U +150) over 62% | over 56% |
| Goes the distance | 22% | 22% |
Line: , DraftKings via ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. Total rounds: "over 1.5" wins if the fight passes 2:30 of round 2. Where the books post a total, the chance shown on the pick card's side is theirs (they price it better than our model).
Advantages Why Waldo Cortes Acosta can win
- Durability: stopped by KO/TKO in 0 of 14 UFC fights; Walker in 4 of 16
- Stronger UFC résumé: a fight rating of 1553 to Walker's 1514 (every UFC result, weighted by who it came against)
- Harder to hit: avoids 56% of significant strikes thrown at them, Walker 51%
- Lands more: 4.4 significant strikes a minute to Walker's 3.9
- Takedown defense: stops 69% of takedown attempts, Walker 58%
- Simulation: Acosta wins by KO/TKO 49%, by submission 5%, by decision 16% (of all outcomes), most often by KO/TKO
- The betting market agrees: Acosta is -230 (67% with the book's margin removed)
Disadvantages Why Waldo Cortes Acosta may not
- Walker · Reach: 82 inches to Acosta's 78
- Walker · More accurate: lands 52% of significant strikes to Acosta's 47%
- Walker · Gets hit less: absorbs 3.1 significant strikes a minute to Acosta's 3.4
- Five-round experience: Walker has 4 UFC fights scheduled for five rounds to Acosta's 0
- One punch or one scramble can end any fight: the UFC favorite loses about one fight in three
- Late changes: a short-notice opponent, a missed weight or a bad weight cut can change a fight after our numbers were run
- Upset odds: Walker wins about 1 time in 3, most often by KO/TKO (18% of all outcomes)
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.
Loading…
Sign in or create a free account to ask.
AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.
Tale of the tape
| WA Acosta | JW Walker | |
|---|---|---|
| 17-4-0 | Pro record | 23-10-0 |
| 10-4 | UFC record | 9-7 (1 NC) |
| 5 KO · 0 Sub · 5 Dec | UFC wins | 7 KO · 1 Sub · 1 Dec |
| 35 | Age | 35 |
| 6'4" | Height | 6'6" |
| 78" | Reach | 82" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| Dominican Republic | From | Brazil |
| 2 months ago | Last fight | 36 days ago |
| 1553 | Fight rating | 1514 |
| 4.4 | Sig. strikes landed / min | 3.9 |
| 3.4 | Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.1 |
| 47% | Striking accuracy | 52% |
| 56% | Striking defense | 51% |
| 0.5 | Takedowns / 15 min | 0.5 |
| 69% | Takedown defense | 58% |
| 0.1 | Sub attempts / 15 min | 0.4 |
| 0.59 | Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.67 |
Rates are from UFC fights only (ufcstats), recent fights counting more, and start from the UFC average so a fighter with one short fight isn't judged on 90 seconds. Fight rating: an Elo rating from every UFC result (1440 for a debut).
Last 5 UFC fights
WA Waldo Cortes Acosta
- LCurtis BlaydesUnanimous decisionSep 2026
- LAlexander VolkovUnanimous decisionMay 2026
- WDerrick LewisKO/TKO · R2 3:14Jan 2026
- WShamil GazievKO/TKO · R1 1:22Nov 2025
- WAnte DelijaKO/TKO · R1 3:59Nov 2025
JW Johnny Walker
- WMick ParkinKO/TKO · R1 3:35Oct 2026
- LDominick ReyesSplit decisionApr 2026
- WZhang MingyangKO/TKO · R2 2:37Aug 2025
- LVolkan OezdemirKO/TKO · R1 2:28Jun 2024
- LMagomed AnkalaevKO/TKO · R2 2:42Jan 2024
Fighter news
Loading the latest headlines...
Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Your pick
Locks at the start of its part of the card · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every UFC fight since 1994 (strikes, takedowns, results and who they came against), blended with the betting market where the guard rail allows it. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own
Game chat
Sign in or create a free account to chat.
Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat