Gabriel Lorenço vs Thomas Petersen
Heavyweight · 3 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Prelims · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
How it ends
| KO/TKO | Sub | Decision | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GL Lorenço | 20% | 7% | 12% | 38% |
| TP Petersen | 24% | 10% | 27% | 62% |
When it ends (3 rounds)
From our method model (each fighter's finishing record and style, the opponent's durability, the division and the number of rounds), and the rounds come from the timing of every UFC finish since 2010 in this weight group and fight length.
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lorenço +142 Petersen -170 | Lorenço +163 Petersen -163 fair |
| Total rounds | 1.5 (O -180 / U +140) over 61% | over 57% |
| Goes the distance | n/a | 39% |
Line: , DraftKings via ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. Total rounds: "over 1.5" wins if the fight passes 2:30 of round 2. Where the books post a total, the chance shown on the pick card's side is theirs (they price it better than our model).
Advantages Why Thomas Petersen can win
- UFC debut for Lorenço: first-time UFC fighters have won about 44% of the time against UFC veterans, and there is no UFC tape to rate them on
- More likely to win by decision: 27% of all outcomes to Lorenço's 12%
- More likely to win by KO/TKO: 24% of all outcomes to Lorenço's 20%
- More likely to win by submission: 10% of all outcomes to Lorenço's 7%
- Simulation: Petersen wins by KO/TKO 24%, by submission 10%, by decision 27% (of all outcomes), most often by decision
- The betting market agrees: Petersen is -170 (60% with the book's margin removed)
Disadvantages Why Thomas Petersen may not
- Lorenço · Age: 27 years old, Petersen is 32
- Lorenço · Reach: 76 inches to Petersen's 74
- One punch or one scramble can end any fight: the UFC favorite loses about one fight in three
- Late changes: a short-notice opponent, a missed weight or a bad weight cut can change a fight after our numbers were run
- Judges: close rounds can be scored either way, and about one UFC decision in five is split
- Small samples: a fighter's UFC numbers often come from a handful of fights
- Upset odds: Lorenço wins about 1 time in 3, most often by KO/TKO (20% of all outcomes)
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.
Loading…
Sign in or create a free account to ask.
AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.
Tale of the tape
| GL Lorenço | TP Petersen | |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1-0 | Pro record | 11-5-0 |
| UFC debut | UFC record | 3-4 |
| – | UFC wins | 0 KO · 0 Sub · 3 Dec |
| 27 | Age | 32 |
| 6'2" | Height | 6'1" |
| 76" | Reach | 74" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Southpaw |
| Brazil | From | USA |
| – | Last fight | 3 months ago |
| 1440 | Fight rating | 1421 |
| 3.5 | Sig. strikes landed / min | 2.9 |
| 3.5 | Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 2.6 |
| 45% | Striking accuracy | 54% |
| 55% | Striking defense | 55% |
| 1.5 | Takedowns / 15 min | 2.3 |
| 63% | Takedown defense | 75% |
| 0.5 | Sub attempts / 15 min | 0.3 |
| 0.31 | Knockdowns / 15 min | 0.26 |
Rates are from UFC fights only (ufcstats), recent fights counting more, and start from the UFC average so a fighter with one short fight isn't judged on 90 seconds. A fighter making a UFC debut shows UFC averages for these, not their own numbers. Fight rating: an Elo rating from every UFC result (1440 for a debut).
Last 5 UFC fights
GL Gabriel Lorenço
No UFC fights yet. Pro record 8-1-0.
TP Thomas Petersen
- LValter WalkerSubmission · R1 1:32Jul 2026
- WGuilherme PatMajority decisionApr 2026
- LVitor PetrinoKO/TKO · R3 0:26Oct 2025
- WDon'Tale MayesUnanimous decisionMay 2025
- LShamil GazievKO/TKO · R1 3:12Feb 2025
Fighter news
Loading the latest headlines...
Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Your pick
Locks at the start of its part of the card · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every UFC fight since 1994 (strikes, takedowns, results and who they came against), blended with the betting market where the guard rail allows it. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own
Game chat
Sign in or create a free account to chat.
Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat