Golf track record
Every PGA Tour tournament we call, graded in public, plus the backtest behind the numbers.
Live record
The first logged tournament gets graded here once it finishes. Every call is logged before the first tee time and never changed.
Backtest: 387 tournaments, 2018-2026
Each tournament predicted with only the rounds played before it, simulated 2,000 times, then scored against what happened. Log loss: lower is better; "no skill" gives every player in the field the same chance.
| Ours | No skill | Better by | We said | Happened | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 0.0395 | 0.0453 | 12.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Top 5 | 0.1653 | 0.1875 | 11.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% |
| Top 10 | 0.2658 | 0.3003 | 11.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| Top 20 | 0.4080 | 0.4566 | 10.6% | 17.4% | 17.6% |
| Make the cut | 0.5920 | 0.6261 | 5.5% | 54.3% | 55.7% |
Our pre-tournament favorite won 9.3% of the time (we gave him 10.3% on average) and finished top 10 46% of the time. In 5,538 head-to-head matchups between neighbors in our ratings, our favorite finished ahead 51.5% of the time (ties left out); we gave them 51.7% on average.
Top 10: when we said...
| We said | Players | Average call | Finished top 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-5% | 19,589 | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| 5-10% | 14,439 | 7.3% | 7.4% |
| 10-20% | 10,979 | 13.9% | 14.5% |
| 20-30% | 2,953 | 24.1% | 23.5% |
| 30-50% | 1,453 | 37.0% | 34.7% |
| 50-70% | 167 | 57.4% | 59.9% |
| 70-100% | 31 | 76.0% | 77.4% |
There is no free archive of golf betting odds, so unlike our other sports this backtest can't compare us with the sportsbooks' closing prices, and we claim no betting edge. For the four majors we log the books' outright prices from now on and show them next to ours. Course history is off and recent form is off: each stays off unless it improves the backtest.