MLB track record
Every MLB prediction is logged before first pitch and graded afterwards. Nothing is deleted. NHL track record · NFL
Live picks
The live MLB record starts with the first graded game on Opening Day. Every pick is logged before first pitch and graded after the last out, wins and losses alike.
Backtest, 2020 onward (15,713 games)
Each game day was predicted using only games played before it. The lines are the closing lines ESPN stored for each game (it keeps MLB lines from 2016 on); the market's win chance is its moneyline with the sportsbooks' margin removed. Box scores are Retrosheet's through 2025 and ESPN's after. One caveat, stated plainly: the backtest knows who actually started each game, while the live site goes by the announced probable starter (they differ only when a starter is scratched late).
| Winners picked | Log loss | |
|---|---|---|
| Closing betting line | 58.0% | 0.6737 |
| AZMango model | 57.8% | 0.6738 |
| Our power ratings, no line | 57.3% | 0.6771 |
The honest summary: we match the closing betting line; we do not beat it. Single baseball games are close to coin flips: even the market picks fewer than six winners in ten. Our own adjustments (starting pitchers, bullpens and ratings on top of the market) did not improve on the closing line over the last two seasons, so the guard rail has them switched off. What we add is the explanation, the pitching matchup, a number for every one of 870 pairings, and probabilities you can check.
Are the percentages honest?
| We said | Games | Average call | Actually won | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50%-60% | 10156 | 55% | 54% | |
| 60%-70% | 4768 | 64% | 63% | |
| 70%-80% | 787 | 72% | 73% | |
| 80%-90% | 2 | 81% | 50% |
Bars: our average call (light) against how often those teams won (dark). Box scores 2014-2025: the information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at www.retrosheet.org.