NHL track record
Every NHL prediction is logged before the puck drops and graded afterwards. Nothing is deleted. NBA track record · NFL
Live picks
The live NHL record starts with the first graded game. Every pick is logged before the puck drops and graded after the final horn, wins and losses alike.
Backtest, 2020-21 onward (8,177 games)
Each game day was predicted using only games played before it. The lines are the closing lines ESPN stored for each game (it keeps NHL lines from 2019-20 on); the market's win chance is its moneyline with the sportsbooks' margin removed. Starting goalies are the ones a fan would have expected, never the real starter after the fact.
| Winners picked | Log loss | |
|---|---|---|
| Closing betting line | 60.9% | 0.6577 |
| AZMango model | 60.7% | 0.6575 |
| Our power ratings, no line | 59.9% | 0.6606 |
The honest summary: we match the closing betting line; we do not beat it. Hockey is the most random of the major sports: even the market picks only about six winners in ten. Our own adjustments (goalies, absences, back-to-backs on top of the market) did not improve on the closing line over the last two seasons, so the guard rail has them switched off. What we add is the explanation, the goalie picture, a number for every one of 992 pairings, and probabilities you can check.
Are the percentages honest?
| We said | Games | Average call | Actually won | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50%-60% | 4413 | 55% | 55% | |
| 60%-70% | 2653 | 64% | 65% | |
| 70%-80% | 962 | 74% | 75% | |
| 80%-90% | 149 | 82% | 77% |
Bars: our average call (light) against how often those teams won (dark).