Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic
NBA 2026-27 ·
- Boston Celtics 4-1 · 3rd in the East · 2nd in the Atlantic · W4
- Orlando Magic 2-3 · 9th in the East · 4th in the Southeast · W1
Game day
No over/under posted yet · our projected total 226.9
- Starting lineups Teams usually confirm their starters about 30 minutes before tip-off.
- Tip-off
A probability, not a promise. A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (12.5 points in a typical NBA game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Injury report: the Magic list Paolo Banchero (out). That is about 9 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +9.2, Magic -8.6.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 3rd (+7.5), Magic 17th (-0.1).
- Simulation: the Celtics win 6,770 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors the Celtics. The nearest thing to one: their offensive rebounding (6th of 30) meets the Magic defensive rebounding (6th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit. Pace clash: the Magic play fast (12th of 30 in pace), the Celtics slow (30th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Jayson Tatum (Celtics: 23.2 pts, 9.5 reb, 6.1 ast, Game Score 18.5) has the edge on Franz Wagner (Magic: 20.0 pts, 5.4 reb, 3.8 ast, Game Score 15.1; filling in for Paolo Banchero, out, right low grade high ankle sprain).
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Magic win 3,230 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Magic 13th (14.5), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 11 or more.
- Team matchup: a strength the Celtics may not get to use. Their offensive rebounding (6th of 30) meets the Magic defensive rebounding (6th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean the Celtics on paper, but Franz Wagner (20.0 pts, 5.4 reb, 3.8 ast, Game Score 15.1; filling in for Paolo Banchero, out, right low grade high ankle sprain) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -5.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.9 |
| Win chance | BOS n/a · ORL n/a | BOS 68% · ORL 32% |
| Moneyline | BOS -210 · ORL +210 (fair) |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post NBA lines the night before or the morning of the game, after the first injury report. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 111, Celtics 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Celtics by 22 and Magic by 11.
Who's playing?
BOS Celtics
- Devin Carter Out Injury/Illness - Illness
ORL Magic
- Paolo Banchero Out Injury/Illness - Right Low Grade High Ankle Sprain
- Jalen Suggs Out Injury/Illness - Right Knee Contusion / Bone Bruise
- Jonathan Isaac Out Injury/Illness - Left Knee Injury Management
- Izaiyah Nelson Out Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Injury Recovery
- Noah Penda Out Injury/Illness - Right Partially Torn Hamstring
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read). Teams must update it through the day; the final word comes about 30 minutes before tip-off. Out counts fully in our numbers, doubtful three-quarters, questionable about a third.
Also checked (who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| BOS | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| +7.5 3 | Net rating | -0.1 17 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 110.6 22 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 110.7 9 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 52.5% 28 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 28.9% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 36.5% 8 | 3-point % | 34.2% 27 |
| 98.2 30 | Pace | 103.0 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | ORL 108 @ BOS 113 | BOS |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025-26 | ORL 129 @ BOS 138 | BOS |
| 2025-11-09 | 2025-26 | BOS 111 @ ORL 107 | BOS |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-26 | BOS 110 @ ORL 123 | ORL |
| 2025-04-29 | Playoffs | ORL 89 @ BOS 120 | BOS |
Game chat
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works
Few lines logged this season yet, so the ratings lean on scoring margins and efficiency.