Toronto Raptors @ Los Angeles Lakers
NBA 2026-27 ·
- Toronto Raptors 3-2 · 4th in the East · 3rd in the Atlantic · L1
- Los Angeles Lakers 4-2 · 5th in the West · 1st in the Pacific · L1
Game day
No over/under posted yet · our projected total 226.1
- Starting lineups Teams usually confirm their starters about 30 minutes before tip-off.
- Tip-off
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Your pick
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What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (12.5 points in a typical NBA game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- Simulation: the Lakers win 5,750 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Lakers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Lakers 10th (36.2%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
- Body clock: the Raptors cross 3 time zones.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Lakers 2nd (0.25), Raptors 17th (0.21).
- Team matchup: where the Lakers can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (1st of 30) meets the Raptors shooting defense (8th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Luka Doncic (Lakers: 33.7 pts, 7.7 reb, 8.2 ast, Game Score 26.5; filling in for Ziaire Williams, out, left foot / heel injury management) has the edge on Scottie Barnes (Raptors: 18.9 pts, 7.4 reb, 6.0 ast, Game Score 17.1).
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +10.6, Lakers +1.8.
- Upset odds: the Raptors win 4,250 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Raptors 8th (13.6), Lakers 24th (15.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
- Team matchup: where the Raptors can push back. Their ball pressure (3rd of 30) meets the Lakers ball security (24th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their shooting efficiency (14th of 30) meets the Lakers shooting defense (20th): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean the Lakers on paper, but Scottie Barnes (18.9 pts, 7.4 reb, 6.0 ast, Game Score 17.1) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -2.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.1 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · LAL n/a | TOR 42% · LAL 57% |
| Moneyline | TOR +136 · LAL -136 (fair) |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post NBA lines the night before or the morning of the game, after the first injury report. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Lakers 114, Raptors 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 15 and Lakers by 19.
Who's playing?
TOR Raptors
- Nate Bittle Out Injury/Illness - Right Avulsion Fracture
- Kawhi Leonard Out Injury/Illness - Left Knee Injury Management
- Malachi Smith Out G League - Two - Way
LAL Lakers
- Walker Kessler Available Injury/Illness - Left Finger Splint
- Ziaire Williams Out Injury/Illness - Left Foot / Heel Injury Management
- Adou Thiero Out Injury/Illness - Left Knee Injury Management
- Cameron Carr Out Injury/Illness - Right Oblique Strain
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read). Teams must update it through the day; the final word comes about 30 minutes before tip-off. Out counts fully in our numbers, doubtful three-quarters, questionable about a third.
Also checked (who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| TOR | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| +2.9 9 | Net rating | +1.3 13 |
| 112.5 15 | Offensive rating | 114.5 6 |
| 109.6 7 | Defensive rating | 113.2 19 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 57.1% 1 |
| 53.9% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 55.2% 20 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 25.9% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 24.3% 20 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 101.7 21 | Pace | 100.5 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | 2025-26 | TOR 93 @ LAL 110 | LAL |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-26 | LAL 123 @ TOR 120 | LAL |
| 2024-11-10 | 2024-25 | TOR 103 @ LAL 123 | LAL |
| 2024-11-01 | 2024-25 | LAL 131 @ TOR 125 | LAL |
| 2024-04-02 | 2023-24 | LAL 128 @ TOR 111 | LAL |
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works
Few lines logged this season yet, so the ratings lean on scoring margins and efficiency.