- Oklahoma City Thunder 4-2 · 5th in the West · 2nd in the Northwest · L2
- Cleveland Cavaliers 4-2 · 4th in the East · 2nd in the Central · W1
Game day
No over/under yet · our total 227.2
- Starting lineups
- Tip-off
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -4.6 |
| Total | n/a | 227.2 |
| Moneyline | n/a | OKC +177 CLE -177 fair |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post NBA lines the night before or the morning of the game, after the first injury report. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.
10,000 simulated games
Your pick
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- Injury report: the Thunder list Chet Holmgren (out), Alex Caruso (out), Cason Wallace (out). That is about 15 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Cavaliers +7.6, Thunder -3.0.
- Home court: the Cavaliers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Strength: the Cavaliers rank 5th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (55.6%).
- Team matchup: where the Cavaliers can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (8th of 30) meets the Thunder defensive rebounding (16th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: At center, Evan Mobley (Cavaliers: 18.0 pts, 8.8 reb, 3.7 ast, Game Score 16.3) has the edge on Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder: 9.2 pts, 9.2 reb, 3.2 ast, Game Score 10.9).
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 6,380 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+9.7), Cavaliers 9th (+2.9).
- The Thunder' offense (115.3 points per 100 possessions, 4th in the NBA) meets a Cavaliers defense that ranks 14th.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (12.5), Cavaliers 15th (14.1).
- Point differential per game: Thunder 1st (+9.9), Cavaliers 9th (+2.9).
- Team matchup: where the Thunder can push back. Their ball pressure (1st of 30) meets the Cavaliers ball security (15th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their shooting efficiency (6th of 30) meets the Cavaliers shooting defense (13th): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder: 30.2 pts, 4.1 reb, 6.6 ast, Game Score 25.1; filling in for Chet Holmgren, out, right knee patellar tendinitis) has the edge on Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers: 27.2 pts, 4.6 reb, 5.1 ast, Game Score 19.8).
- Upset odds: the Thunder win 3,620 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Who's playing?
OKC Thunder
- Chet Holmgren Out Injury/Illness - Right Knee Patellar Tendinitis
- Alex Caruso Out Injury/Illness - Right Ankle Sprain
- Cason Wallace Out Injury/Illness - Left Shoulder Labral Tear
- Jalen Williams Out Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Surgery
- Thomas Sorber Out Injury/Illness - Right Knee Surgery
- Nikola Topic Out Injury/Illness - Low back surgery
CLE Cavaliers
- Meleek Thomas Available Injury/Illness - Right Foot Inflammation / Soreness
- Nae'Qwan Tomlin Out Injury/Illness - Low Back Stress Reaction
- Jaylon Tyson Out Injury/Illness - Right Ankle Sprain Udeh,
- Khalifa Diop Out G League - On Assignment
- Ernest Jr. Out G League - Two - Way
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read).
Also checked (who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| OKC | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| +9.7 1 | Net rating | +2.9 9 |
| 115.3 4 | Offensive rating | 114.6 6 |
| 105.6 1 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 55.5% 6 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 5 |
| 51.8% 3 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 13 |
| 12.5 1 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 15 |
| 23.4% 28 | Offensive rebound % | 27.1% 8 |
| 36.2% 11 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 102.2 18 | Pace | 102.6 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | 2025-26 | CLE 113 @ OKC 121 | OKC |
| 2026-01-19 | 2025-26 | OKC 136 @ CLE 104 | OKC |
| 2025-01-16 | 2024-25 | CLE 114 @ OKC 134 | OKC |
| 2025-01-08 | 2024-25 | OKC 122 @ CLE 129 | CLE |
| 2023-11-08 | 2023-24 | CLE 120 @ OKC 128 | OKC |
Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works
Few lines logged this season yet, so this leans on our power ratings.
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