- Utah Jazz 1-5 · 14th in the West · 5th in the Northwest · L4
- San Antonio Spurs 4-2 · 6th in the West · 3rd in the Southwest · W4
Game day
No over/under yet · our total 231.6
- Starting lineups
- Tip-off
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -14.6 |
| Total | n/a | 231.6 |
| Moneyline | n/a | UTA +660 SAS -660 fair |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post NBA lines the night before or the morning of the game, after the first injury report. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.
10,000 simulated games
Your pick
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 8.2 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Jazz 27th (-8.1).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +11.0, Jazz -8.2.
- The Spurs' offense (115.2 points per 100 possessions, 5th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Team matchup: where the Spurs can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (8th of 30) meets the Jazz shooting defense (30th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their offensive rebounding (10th of 30) meets the Jazz defensive rebounding (22nd): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Victor Wembanyama (Spurs: 24.8 pts, 11.2 reb, 3.0 ast, Game Score 22.0) has the edge on Lauri Markkanen (Jazz: 25.5 pts, 6.7 reb, 2.1 ast, Game Score 19.1; filling in for Jaren Jackson Jr., out, right knee mcl tear).
- Simulation: the Spurs win 8,680 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 2 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
- Team matchup: the Jazz have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
- Star matchup: At guard, Keyonte George (Jazz: 23.4 pts, 3.7 reb, 6.2 ast, Game Score 17.4) has the edge on De'Aaron Fox (Spurs: 17.8 pts, 3.8 reb, 6.2 ast, Game Score 14.2).
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 1,320 of 10,000 simulations (13%). A 87% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Who's playing?
UTA Jazz
- Lauri Markkanen Available Injury/Illness - Right Wrist Sprain
- Jaren Jackson Jr. Out Injury/Illness - Right Knee MCL Tear
- Trey Alexander Out G League - Two - Way
- Kobe Bufkin Out G League - Two - Way
- Harrison Ingram Out G League - Two - Way
- Jusuf Nurkic Out Injury/Illness - Right Foot 2nd Plantar Plate Tear
SAS Spurs
- Stephon Castle Available
- Tobias Harris Out Injury/Illness - Left Calf Strain
- Jayden Quaintance Out Injury/Illness - Right Knee Surgery
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read).
Also checked (who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| UTA | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| -8.1 27 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 110.8 21 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 118.9 30 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 57.5% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 26.1% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 26.5% 10 |
| 34.3% 26 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 102.5 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-27 | SAS 117 @ UTA 111 | SAS |
| 2026-01-22 | 2025-26 | SAS 126 @ UTA 109 | SAS |
| 2026-01-19 | 2025-26 | UTA 110 @ SAS 123 | SAS |
| 2025-12-27 | 2025-26 | UTA 127 @ SAS 114 | UTA |
| 2024-11-26 | 2024-25 | SAS 128 @ UTA 115 | SAS |
Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works
Few lines logged this season yet, so this leans on our power ratings.
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