- Portland Trail Blazers 4-1 · 3rd in the West · 1st in the Northwest · W1
- Denver Nuggets 3-2 · 8th in the West · 3rd in the Northwest · W2
Game day
No over/under yet · our total 230.6
- Starting lineups
- Tip-off
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -1.3 |
| Total | n/a | 230.6 |
| Moneyline | n/a | POR +115 DEN -115 fair |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post NBA lines the night before or the morning of the game, after the first injury report. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.
10,000 simulated games
Your pick
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why Nuggets can win
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Nuggets 3rd (12.8), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.3).
- Three-point shooting: Nuggets 1st (39.0%), Trail Blazers 28th (34.1%).
- Home court: the Nuggets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Team matchup: where the Nuggets can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (2nd of 30) meets the Trail Blazers shooting defense (12th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Nikola Jokic (Nuggets: 27.1 pts, 12.7 reb, 10.5 ast, Game Score 27.6) has the edge on Deni Avdija (Trail Blazers: 24.2 pts, 6.8 reb, 6.6 ast, Game Score 18.7; filling in for Ja Morant, out, left hamstring strain); at guard, Jamal Murray (Nuggets: 25.3 pts, 4.5 reb, 6.9 ast, Game Score 20.3) has the edge on Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers: 19.2 pts, 4.0 reb, 3.6 ast, Game Score 13.2).
- Simulation: the Nuggets win 5,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +11.4, Nuggets -1.2.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Trail Blazers 7th (15.0), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 16 or more.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Team matchup: where the Trail Blazers can push back. Their offensive rebounding (2nd of 30) meets the Nuggets defensive rebounding (7th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean the Nuggets on paper, but Deni Avdija (24.2 pts, 6.8 reb, 6.6 ast, Game Score 18.7; filling in for Ja Morant, out, left hamstring strain) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: the Trail Blazers win 4,650 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Who's playing?
POR Trail Blazers
- Robert Williams III Available Injury/Illness - Left Knee Injury Management
- Ja Morant Out Injury/Illness - Left Hamstring Strain
- Shaedon Sharpe Out Injury/Illness - Right Meniscus Surgery
- Jayson Kent Out G League - Two - Way
- John Tonje Out G League - Two - Way
- Chris Youngblood Available Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Soreness
DEN Nuggets
Nobody listed.
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read).
Also checked (who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| POR | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| -0.3 18 | Net rating | +4.1 7 |
| 110.8 20 | Offensive rating | 118.3 1 |
| 111.1 11 | Defensive rating | 114.2 21 |
| 53.2% 24 | Effective FG% | 57.0% 2 |
| 54.0% 12 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 16.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 3 |
| 30.8% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 34.1% 28 | 3-point % | 39.0% 1 |
| 103.7 11 | Pace | 102.0 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | 2025-26 | POR 132 @ DEN 137 | DEN |
| 2026-03-22 | 2025-26 | POR 112 @ DEN 128 | DEN |
| 2026-02-20 | 2025-26 | DEN 157 @ POR 103 | DEN |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-26 | DEN 107 @ POR 109 | POR |
| 2025-03-21 | 2024-25 | DEN 109 @ POR 128 | POR |
Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works
Few lines logged this season yet, so this leans on our power ratings.
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