Game day
Tip-offWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -14.2 |
| Total | n/a | 232.7 |
| Moneyline | n/a | IND +591 MEM -591 fair |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post NBA lines the night before or the morning of the game, after the first injury report. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.
10,000 simulated games
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Our number.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Injury report: the Pacers list Obi Toppin (out), Pascal Siakam (out), Andrew Nembhard (out). That is about 21 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.9 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +13.4, Pacers -9.0.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Team matchup: where the Grizzlies can take advantage. Their ball pressure (13th of 30) meets the Pacers ball security (25th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their offensive rebounding (19th of 30) meets the Pacers defensive rebounding (25th): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Ty Jerome (Grizzlies: 22.1 pts, 3.0 reb, 5.7 ast, Game Score 17.6) has the edge on Jarace Walker (Pacers: 11.3 pts, 5.2 reb, 2.5 ast, Game Score 8.2; filling in for Tyrese Haliburton, out, left hamstring strain); at center, Zach Edey (Grizzlies: 11.2 pts, 9.8 reb, 1.1 ast, Game Score 11.0) has the edge on Jay Huff (Pacers: 9.4 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.4 ast, Game Score 8.0; filling in for Pascal Siakam, out, rest).
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 8,550 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Grizzlies lose by 3 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pacers 7th (0.23), Grizzlies 20th (0.20).
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 27th of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (55.7%).
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 27th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.2%).
- Team matchup: where the Pacers can push back. Their shooting efficiency (18th of 30) meets the Grizzlies shooting defense (27th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their ball pressure (11th of 30) meets the Grizzlies ball security (16th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean the Grizzlies on paper, but Jarace Walker (11.3 pts, 5.2 reb, 2.5 ast, Game Score 8.2; filling in for Tyrese Haliburton, out, left hamstring strain) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 1,450 of 10,000 simulations (15%). A 86% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Injury report
IND Pacers
- OutObi ToppinInjury/Illness - Lumbar Sprain
- OutPascal SiakamRest
- OutAndrew NembhardInjury/Illness - Cervical Injury Management
- OutTyrese HaliburtonInjury/Illness - Left Hamstring Strain
- OutT.J. McConnellInjury/Illness - Right Hamstring Strain
- OutAaron NesmithInjury/Illness - Left Hamstring Injury Management
- OutBen SheppardInjury/Illness - Left Meniscus Surgery
- OutIvica ZubacInjury/Illness - Left Ankle Sprain
MEM Grizzlies
- OutJavon SmallG League - Two - Way
- OutQuinten PostInjury/Illness - Right Ankle Sprain
- OutScotty Pippen Jr.Injury/Illness - Low Back Soreness
Official NBA injury report (latest version we read). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideStandings
| IND | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | Record | 6-1 |
| -3.8 20 | Net rating | -4.3 22 |
| 108.2 26 | Offensive rating | 110.5 19 |
| 111.9 17 | Defensive rating | 114.8 23 |
| 53.6% 18 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 19 |
| 53.3% 9 | Opponent eFG% | 55.7% 27 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 16 |
| 22.4% 28 | Offensive rebound % | 25.1% 19 |
| 32.9% 29 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 103.3 11 | Pace | 104.4 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2026-27 season).
Last 5 meetings
- MEM 125 @ IND 106Mar 1, 2026
- IND 103 @ MEM 128Oct 25, 2025
- MEM 113 @ IND 127Feb 20, 2025
- IND 121 @ MEM 136Dec 1, 2024
- MEM 110 @ IND 116Jan 28, 2024
Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works
Few lines logged this season yet, so this leans on our power ratings.
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