- Timberwolves 5-3 · 8th West · 3rd Northwest · W1
- Rockets 7-1 · 1st West · 1st Southwest · W2
Game day
Tip-offWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -5.6 |
| Total | n/a | 225.2 |
| Moneyline | n/a | MIN +194 HOU -194 fair |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post NBA lines the night before or the morning of the game, after the first injury report. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.
10,000 simulated games
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Our number.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Injury report: the Timberwolves list Anthony Edwards (out). That is about 6 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.8, Timberwolves +4.2.
- Home court: the Rockets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Rockets 4th (0.25), Timberwolves 27th (0.17).
- Team matchup: where the Rockets can take advantage. Their ball pressure (9th of 30) meets the Timberwolves ball security (18th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their offensive rebounding (3rd of 30) meets the Timberwolves defensive rebounding (10th): a chance to crash the glass for second chances. Pace clash: the Timberwolves play fast (6th of 30 in pace), the Rockets slow (24th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Kevin Durant (Rockets: 25.5 pts, 5.4 reb, 4.6 ast, Game Score 19.3) has the edge on Ayo Dosunmu (Timberwolves: 14.9 pts, 4.4 reb, 3.8 ast, Game Score 12.2; filling in for Anthony Edwards, out, right knee arthroscopy shannon); at center, Alperen Sengun (Rockets: 20.6 pts, 9.0 reb, 6.2 ast, Game Score 18.0) has the edge on Rudy Gobert (Timberwolves: 10.2 pts, 11.2 reb, 1.7 ast, Game Score 12.2).
- Simulation: the Rockets win 6,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 12 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Timberwolves 10th (74.3%), Rockets 22nd (72.3%).
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 23rd of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.1).
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 22nd of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (72.3%).
- Team matchup: where the Timberwolves can push back. Their offensive rebounding (4th of 30) meets the Rockets defensive rebounding (22nd), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their ball pressure (10th of 30) meets the Rockets ball security (23rd): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean the Rockets on paper, but Ayo Dosunmu (14.9 pts, 4.4 reb, 3.8 ast, Game Score 12.2; filling in for Anthony Edwards, out, right knee arthroscopy shannon) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: the Timberwolves win 3,400 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Injury report
MIN Timberwolves
- OutAnthony EdwardsInjury/Illness - Right Knee Arthroscopy Shannon
- AvailableLaMelo BallInjury/Illness - Right Wrist Contusion
- OutDonte DiVincenzoInjury/Illness - Right Achilles Tendon Repair / Surgery
- OutTerrence JrInjury/Illness - Left Hip Contusion
HOU Rockets
- AvailableReed SheppardInjury/Illness - Low Back Strain
- OutClint CapelaInjury/Illness - Right Ankle Sprain
- OutSteven AdamsInjury/Illness - Right Soleus Strain
- OutQuadir CopelandG League - Two - Way
- OutJulian PhillipsG League - Two - Way
Official NBA injury report (latest version we read). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideStandings
| MIN | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 7-1 |
| +10.9 2 | Net rating | +12.8 1 |
| 113.6 12 | Offensive rating | 118.7 2 |
| 102.7 2 | Defensive rating | 105.9 5 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 57.4% 2 |
| 49.9% 2 | Opponent eFG% | 51.3% 3 |
| 14.6 18 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.1 23 |
| 31.1% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 31.7% 3 |
| 37.5% 6 | 3-point % | 39.1% 2 |
| 104.8 6 | Pace | 100.4 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2026-27 season).
Last 5 meetings
- MIN 136 @ HOU 132Apr 10, 2026
- HOU 108 @ MIN 110Mar 25, 2026
- MIN 105 @ HOU 110Jan 16, 2026
- MIN 115 @ HOU 121Feb 21, 2025
- HOU 114 @ MIN 127Feb 6, 2025
Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works
Few lines logged this season yet, so this leans on our power ratings.
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