Game day
Tip-offWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -1.2 |
| Total | n/a | 230.6 |
| Moneyline | n/a | TOR +117 DEN -117 fair |
No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post NBA lines the night before or the morning of the game, after the first injury report. We add it as soon as one posts.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score
- DEN 116, TOR 115
- 8 in 10 games
- TOR by 16 to DEN by 18
Your pick
Locks at kickoff · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Advantages Why Nuggets can win
- Home court: the Nuggets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Game-time decision: Scottie Barnes is questionable for the Raptors.
- Three-point shooting: Nuggets 3rd (38.9%), Raptors 18th (35.1%).
- The Nuggets' offense (118.3 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Raptors defense that ranks 10th.
- Team matchup: where the Nuggets can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (3rd of 30) meets the Raptors shooting defense (11th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Nikola Jokic (Nuggets: 27.1 pts, 12.6 reb, 10.5 ast, Game Score 27.6) has the edge on Scottie Barnes (Raptors: 19.0 pts, 7.4 reb, 6.1 ast, Game Score 17.2; status unclear: questionable, left hip soreness / tightness); at guard, Jamal Murray (Nuggets: 25.4 pts, 4.5 reb, 6.9 ast, Game Score 20.4) has the edge on Immanuel Quickley (Raptors: 16.6 pts, 4.0 reb, 5.9 ast, Game Score 14.2).
- Simulation: the Nuggets win 5,390 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Raptors 7th (16.2), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
- The Raptors' offense (112.6 points per 100 possessions, 14th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 22nd.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 16 or more.
- Team matchup: the Raptors have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean the Nuggets on paper, but Scottie Barnes (19.0 pts, 7.4 reb, 6.1 ast, Game Score 17.2; status unclear: questionable, left hip soreness / tightness) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: the Raptors win 4,610 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.
Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Injury report
TOR Raptors
- QuestionableScottie BarnesInjury/Illness - Left Hip Soreness / Tightness
- QuestionableJakob PoeltlInjury/Illness - Left Shoulder Bursitis
- OutNate BittleInjury/Illness - Right Avulsion Fracture
- OutKawhi LeonardInjury/Illness - Left Knee Injury Management
- OutMalachi SmithG League - Two - Way
DEN Nuggets
- OutJulian StrawtherInjury/Illness - Left Knee Sprain
- OutSpencer JonesInjury/Illness - Bilateral Hamstring Injury Management
- QuestionableAlpha DialloInjury/Illness - Right Wrist Sprain
Official NBA injury report (latest version we read). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideStandings
| TOR | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-3 |
| +2.8 12 | Net rating | +4.0 10 |
| 112.6 14 | Offensive rating | 118.3 3 |
| 109.8 10 | Defensive rating | 114.3 22 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 57.0% 3 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 13.6 7 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 3 |
| 26.1% 16 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 35.1% 18 | 3-point % | 38.9% 3 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 102.0 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
- TOR 115 @ DEN 121Mar 20, 2026
- DEN 106 @ TOR 103Dec 31, 2025
- TOR 119 @ DEN 121Nov 4, 2024
- DEN 127 @ TOR 125Oct 28, 2024
- TOR 119 @ DEN 125Mar 11, 2024
Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works
Few lines logged this season yet, so this leans on our power ratings.
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