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DAL

Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA ·

SAS

Game day

Tip-off

Starting lineups

Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
78% to win
ModelDAL 22%SAS 78%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetSAS -10.2
Totaln/a228.8
Moneylinen/aDAL +355
SAS -355 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post NBA lines the night before or the morning of the game, after the first injury report. We add it as soon as one posts.

10,000 simulated games

Typical score
SAS 120, DAL 109
8 in 10 games
DAL by 7 to SAS by 27
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

What if?

Mavericks22%
78%Spurs

Advantages Why Spurs can win

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.3 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
  2. Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +16.2, Mavericks +0.4.
  3. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 4th (+7.8), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
  4. Injury report: the Mavericks list Kyrie Irving (out). That is about 3 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
  5. Team matchup: where the Spurs can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (9th of 30) meets the Mavericks shooting defense (18th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Victor Wembanyama (Spurs: 24.7 pts, 11.2 reb, 3.0 ast, Game Score 21.9) has the edge on Cooper Flagg (Mavericks: 21.4 pts, 6.6 reb, 4.7 ast, Game Score 16.7; filling in for Kyrie Irving, out, left knee injury management).
  7. Simulation: the Spurs win 7,800 of 10,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Spurs may not

  1. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 7 or more.
  2. Weak spot: the Spurs rank 26th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.9).
  3. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
  4. Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
  5. Team matchup: the Mavericks have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean the Spurs on paper, but Cooper Flagg (21.4 pts, 6.6 reb, 4.7 ast, Game Score 16.7; filling in for Kyrie Irving, out, left knee injury management) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: the Mavericks win 2,200 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Injury report

DAL Mavericks

  • OutKyrie IrvingInjury/Illness - Left Knee Injury Management
  • OutSergio de LarreaInjury/Illness - Right Knee Sprain
  • AvailableCaleb MartinInjury/Illness - Right Thumb Splint
  • OutSanti AldamaInjury/Illness - Right Knee Surgery
  • OutTarik BiberovicInjury/Illness - Right Heel Bursitis
  • OutDereck Lively IIInjury/Illness - Right Surgery

SAS Spurs

  • OutTobias HarrisInjury/Illness - Left Calf Strain
  • OutJayden QuaintanceInjury/Illness - Right Knee Surgery

Official NBA injury report (latest version we read). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideStandings

DALSAS
4-3Record5-2
-4.8 23Net rating+7.8 4
108.7 24Offensive rating115.2 8
113.5 21Defensive rating107.3 6
52.9% 23Effective FG%55.1% 9
54.5% 18Opponent eFG%51.3% 5
14.1 12Turnovers per 10013.3 6
23.5% 25Offensive rebound %26.5% 14
34.3% 233-point %35.8% 13
104.9 5Pace102.5 16

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

  • SAS 122 @ DAL 106Oct 24, 2026
  • DAL 120 @ SAS 139Apr 10, 2026
  • DAL 125 @ SAS 138Feb 7, 2026
  • SAS 135 @ DAL 123Feb 5, 2026
  • SAS 125 @ DAL 92Oct 22, 2025

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

Few lines logged this season yet, so this leans on our power ratings.

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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