Game day
Tip-offWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIA -0.2 |
| Total | n/a | 234.8 |
| Moneyline | n/a | MIA -104 LAC +104 fair |
No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post NBA lines the night before or the morning of the game, after the first injury report. We add it as soon as one posts.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score
- LAC 118, MIA 118
- 8 in 10 games
- MIA by 17 to LAC by 16
Your pick
Locks at kickoff · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Advantages Why Heat can win
- Injury report: the Clippers list Jordan Miller (out), Derrick Jones Jr. (out). That is about 5 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Heat +0.4, Clippers -13.6.
- The Heat' offense (113.7 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 20th.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 5th (12.9), Clippers 19th (14.7).
- Team matchup: where the Heat can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (13th of 30) meets the Clippers shooting defense (20th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. Pace clash: the Heat play fast (1st of 30 in pace), the Clippers slow (27th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat: 28.4 pts, 12.3 reb, 5.7 ast, Game Score 24.2) has the edge on Darius Garland (Clippers: 20.0 pts, 2.3 reb, 6.5 ast, Game Score 13.8; filling in for Derrick Jones Jr., out, right knee soreness).
- Simulation: the Heat win 5,100 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Heat may not
- Home court: the Clippers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Clippers' offense (113.8 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the NBA) meets a Heat defense that ranks 18th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Heat lose by 16 or more.
- Body clock: the Heat cross 3 time zones.
- Team matchup: where the Clippers can push back. Their shooting efficiency (5th of 30) meets the Heat shooting defense (16th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean the Heat on paper, but Darius Garland (20.0 pts, 2.3 reb, 6.5 ast, Game Score 13.8; filling in for Derrick Jones Jr., out, right knee soreness) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 4,900 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.
Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Injury report
MIA Heat
- AvailableVladislav GoldinG League - Two - Way
- AvailableTre DonaldsonG League - Two - Way
- AvailableTim Hardaway Jr.Personal Reasons
LAC Clippers
- OutJordan MillerInjury/Illness - Left Rotator Cuff Surgery
- OutDerrick Jones Jr.Injury/Illness - Right Knee Soreness
- OutRui HachimuraInjury/Illness - Left Quadriceps Soreness
- OutBradley BealInjury/Illness - Right Knee Injury Management
- OutBrandon IngramInjury/Illness - Right Heel Surgery
- OutYanic Konan NiederhauserInjury/Illness - Right Lisfranc Surgery
Official NBA injury report (latest version we read). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideStandings
| MIA | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 1-6 |
| +1.6 14 | Net rating | +0.4 16 |
| 113.7 11 | Offensive rating | 113.8 10 |
| 112.1 18 | Defensive rating | 113.4 20 |
| 54.3% 13 | Effective FG% | 55.7% 5 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 54.8% 20 |
| 12.9 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.7 19 |
| 25.2% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 21 |
| 36.1% 11 | 3-point % | 36.9% 8 |
| 106.2 1 | Pace | 99.6 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
- LAC 123 @ MIA 140Dec 1, 2025
- MIA 120 @ LAC 119Nov 3, 2025
- LAC 119 @ MIA 104Mar 12, 2025
- MIA 98 @ LAC 109Jan 13, 2025
- LAC 103 @ MIA 95Feb 4, 2024
Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works
Few lines logged this season yet, so this leans on our power ratings.
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