21+ only. Information and entertainment, not betting advice. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (Arizona) or 1-800-GAMBLER.

AZMango Tip jar
Invite
JAX

Jacksonville @ #1 Florida

NCAAB · · Stephen C. O'Connell Center

FLA

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
FLAFlorida Gators
99% to win
ModelJAX 1%FLA 99%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: even a pick this strong still loses about 1 time in 100.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetFLA -25.6
Totaln/a150.6
Moneylinen/aJAX +9334
FLA -9334 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
FLA 87, JAX 64
8 in 10 games
FLA by 10 to FLA by 36
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Florida can win

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Florida about 15.4 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Florida 8th (+21.4), Jacksonville 292nd (-8.6) of 365.
  3. Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.9 points to Florida in our ratings.
  4. Florida's offense (120.6 points per 100 possessions, 9th in Division I) meets a Jacksonville defense that ranks 311th.
  5. Team matchup: where Florida can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (61st of 365) meets the Jacksonville shooting defense (325th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their offensive rebounding (2nd of 365) meets the Jacksonville defensive rebounding (110th): a chance to crash the glass for second chances. Pace clash: Florida play fast (39th of 365 in pace), Jacksonville slow (324th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Thomas Haugh (Florida: 17.1 pts, 6.3 reb, 2.2 ast, Game Score 14.1) has the edge on Hayden Wood (Jacksonville: 11.8 pts, 3.2 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 8.4).
  7. Simulation: Florida win 4,945 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Florida may not

  1. Weak spot: Florida rank 301st of 365 in three-point shooting (31.5%).
  2. Weak spot: Florida rank 268th of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (15.3).
  3. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  4. Who plays: college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
  5. Team matchup: Jacksonville have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Florida on paper, but Hayden Wood (11.8 pts, 3.2 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 8.4) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Jacksonville win 55 of 5,000 simulations (1%). Even a pick this strong still loses about 1 time in 100.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

Loading…

AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

Loading the latest headlines...

Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

JAX Jacksonville

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

FLA Florida

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

JAXFLA
0-0Record1-0
-8.6 292Net rating+21.4 8
105.7 228Offensive rating120.6 9
114.4 311Defensive rating99.2 22
-0.4 214Strength of schedule+2.9 7
50.0% 235Effective FG%54.1% 61
54.8% 325Opponent eFG%45.9% 11
17.2 220Turnovers per 10016.4 155
31.7% 136Offensive rebound %43.0% 2
31.7% 2863-point %31.5% 301
65.7 324Pace72.0 39

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

  • Jacksonville 60 @ Florida 81Nov 7, 2024
  • Jacksonville 65 @ Florida 89Dec 22, 2015
  • Jacksonville 34 @ Florida 79Dec 14, 2014
  • Florida 86 @ Jacksonville 60Nov 25, 2013
  • Jacksonville 62 @ Florida 107Nov 25, 2011

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

What if?

Jacksonville1%
99%Florida

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

Game chat

    Sign in or create a free account to chat.

    Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat