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NWST

Northwestern State @ Mississippi State

NCAAB · · Humphrey Coliseum

MSST

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
MSSTMississippi State Bulldogs
88% to win
ModelNWST 12%MSST 88%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetMSST -13
Totaln/a151.8
Moneylinen/aNWST +761
MSST -761 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
MSST 82, NWST 69
8 in 10 games
NWST by 2 to MSST by 27
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Mississippi State can win

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Mississippi State about 7.0 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Home court: Mississippi State play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  3. Mississippi State's offense (108.3 points per 100 possessions, 177th in Division I) meets a Northwestern State defense that ranks 262nd.
  4. Strength of schedule: Mississippi State 42nd (+1.9), Northwestern State 182nd (-0.2) of 365.
  5. Team matchup: where Mississippi State can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (150th of 365) meets the Northwestern State shooting defense (272nd), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their offensive rebounding (195th of 365) meets the Northwestern State defensive rebounding (295th): a chance to crash the glass for second chances. Pace clash: Mississippi State play fast (27th of 365 in pace), Northwestern State slow (322nd); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Josh Hubbard (Mississippi State: 22.2 pts, 2.4 reb, 3.8 ast, Game Score 14.3) has the edge on Micah Thomas (Northwestern State: 16.8 pts, 2.0 reb, 2.7 ast, Game Score 10.3).
  7. Simulation: Mississippi State win 4,420 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Mississippi State may not

  1. Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Northwestern State 154th (17.0), Mississippi State 359th (12.9) of 365.
  2. Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Northwestern State 50th (0.30), Mississippi State 322nd (0.21) of 365.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Mississippi State lose by 2 or more.
  4. Weak spot: Mississippi State rank 359th of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.9).
  5. Team matchup: Northwestern State have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: At forward, Willie Williams (Northwestern State: 9.8 pts, 8.5 reb, 1.5 ast, Game Score 10.1) has the edge on Achor Achor (Mississippi State: 6.2 pts, 6.3 reb, 0.4 ast, Game Score 5.3).
  7. Upset odds: Northwestern State win 580 of 5,000 simulations (12%). A 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

NWST Northwestern State

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

MSST Mississippi State

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

NWSTMSST
0-1Record1-0
-11.1 315Net rating-4.9 247
100.3 322Offensive rating108.3 177
111.4 262Defensive rating113.2 292
-0.2 182Strength of schedule+1.9 42
48.3% 305Effective FG%52.0% 150
53.1% 272Opponent eFG%51.1% 167
18.4 286Turnovers per 10016.2 147
25.9% 325Offensive rebound %30.1% 195
32.7% 2423-point %32.9% 232
65.8 322Pace72.5 27

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 2 meetings

  • Northwestern State 59 @ Mississippi State 65Nov 28, 2016
  • Northwestern State 67 vs Mississippi State 82Dec 22, 2011

What if?

Northwestern State12%
88%Mississippi State

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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