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USF

South Florida @ DePaul

NCAAB · · Wintrust Arena

DEP

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
USFSouth Florida Bulls
67% to win
ModelUSF 67%DEP 33%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetUSF -4.8
Totaln/a151.9
Moneylinen/aUSF -207
DEP +207 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
DEP 73, USF 79
8 in 10 games
USF by 19 to DEP by 9
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why South Florida can win

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated South Florida about 6.4 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.1 points to South Florida in our ratings.
  3. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): South Florida 23rd (+14.4), DePaul 152nd (+1.7) of 365.
  4. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): South Florida 62nd (15.0), DePaul 247th (17.7) of 365.
  5. Team matchup: where South Florida can take advantage. Their ball pressure (39th of 365) meets the DePaul ball security (247th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their offensive rebounding (7th of 365) meets the DePaul defensive rebounding (194th): a chance to crash the glass for second chances. Pace clash: South Florida play fast (9th of 365 in pace), DePaul slow (235th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Izaiyah Nelson (South Florida: 15.9 pts, 9.6 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 15.7) has the edge on NJ Benson (DePaul: 11.7 pts, 7.6 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 10.7); at guard, Joseph Pinion (South Florida: 14.6 pts, 3.9 reb, 2.4 ast, Game Score 10.3) has the edge on Brandon Maclin (DePaul: 10.5 pts, 4.5 reb, 2.8 ast, Game Score 8.3).
  7. Simulation: South Florida win 3,370 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why South Florida may not

  1. Home court: DePaul play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations South Florida lose by 9 or more.
  3. Weak spot: South Florida rank 248th of 365 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (68.0%).
  4. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  5. Team matchup: DePaul have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean South Florida on paper, but NJ Benson (11.7 pts, 7.6 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 10.7) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: DePaul win 1,630 of 5,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

USF South Florida

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

DEP DePaul

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

USFDEP
1-0Record1-0
+14.4 23Net rating+1.7 152
116.9 40Offensive rating103.7 274
102.5 51Defensive rating101.9 44
+0.9 100Strength of schedule+1.2 84
50.8% 202Effective FG%49.7% 251
48.6% 51Opponent eFG%48.9% 67
15.0 62Turnovers per 10017.7 247
38.0% 7Offensive rebound %29.8% 213
32.8% 2403-point %32.1% 272
74.5 9Pace67.9 235

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

  • South Florida 77 @ DePaul 65Apr 5, 2019 · Postseason
  • South Florida 96 @ DePaul 100Apr 3, 2019 · Postseason
  • DePaul 61 @ South Florida 63Apr 1, 2019 · Postseason
  • DePaul 73 @ South Florida 83Mar 3, 2013
  • South Florida 75 @ DePaul 59Jan 22, 2012

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

What if?

South Florida67%
33%DePaul

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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