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CCU

Coastal Carolina @ #2 Duke

NCAAB · · Cameron Indoor Stadium

DUKE

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
DUKEDuke Blue Devils
99% to win
ModelCCU 1%DUKE 99%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: even a pick this strong still loses about 1 time in 100.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetDUKE -28.1
Totaln/a144
Moneylinen/aCCU +13058
DUKE -13058 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
DUKE 88, CCU 64
8 in 10 games
DUKE by 11 to DUKE by 38
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Duke can win

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Duke about 17.0 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.7 points to Duke in our ratings.
  3. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Duke 1st (+27.5), Coastal Carolina 216th (-2.5) of 365.
  4. Home court: Duke play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  5. Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Duke. The nearest thing to one: their offensive rebounding (4th of 365) meets the Coastal Carolina defensive rebounding (48th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Cameron Boozer (Duke: 22.5 pts, 10.2 reb, 4.1 ast, Game Score 21.2) has the edge on Rasheed Jones (Coastal Carolina: 14.8 pts, 4.6 reb, 2.9 ast, Game Score 10.7).
  7. Simulation: Duke win 4,960 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Duke may not

  1. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  2. Who plays: college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
  3. Young rosters: freshmen and transfers can change a team's level from one month to the next.
  4. Small samples: early-season numbers come from a handful of games against very different opponents.
  5. Team matchup: a strength Duke may not get to use. Their offensive rebounding (4th of 365) meets the Coastal Carolina defensive rebounding (48th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Duke on paper, but Rasheed Jones (14.8 pts, 4.6 reb, 2.9 ast, Game Score 10.7) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Coastal Carolina win 40 of 5,000 simulations (1%). Even a pick this strong still loses about 1 time in 100.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

CCU Coastal Carolina

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

DUKE Duke

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

CCUDUKE
0-1Record1-0
-2.5 216Net rating+27.5 1
102.7 286Offensive rating122.1 4
105.2 98Defensive rating94.6 2
-0.4 217Strength of schedule+2.6 17
47.9% 313Effective FG%56.5% 14
46.8% 17Opponent eFG%46.1% 12
15.4 85Turnovers per 10016.0 134
27.3% 288Offensive rebound %38.6% 4
33.4% 2043-point %34.3% 150
69.8 127Pace66.9 282

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 1 meeting

  • Coastal Carolina 49 @ Duke 74Nov 16, 2009

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

What if?

Coastal Carolina1%
99%Duke

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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