- Buffalo 0-1 · MAC 0-0, 9th · L1
- Pittsburgh 1-0 · ACC 0-0, 11th · W1
Game day
Tip-offThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PITT -7.4 |
| Total | n/a | 147.5 |
| Moneyline | n/a | BUF +309 PITT -309 fair |
No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. We add it as soon as one posts.
5,000 simulated games
- Typical score
- PITT 79, BUF 71
- 8 in 10 games
- BUF by 7 to PITT by 22
Advantages Why Pittsburgh can win
- Home court: Pittsburgh play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Pittsburgh's offense (109.1 points per 100 possessions, 156th in Division I) meets a Buffalo defense that ranks 295th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to Pittsburgh in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Pittsburgh about 0.7 points stronger over recent games.
- Team matchup: where Pittsburgh can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (178th of 365) meets the Buffalo shooting defense (336th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their offensive rebounding (71st of 365) meets the Buffalo defensive rebounding (199th): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Cameron Corhen (Pittsburgh: 13.6 pts, 6.8 reb, 1.9 ast, Game Score 10.6) has the edge on Noah Batchelor (Buffalo: 7.3 pts, 4.6 reb, 1.3 ast, Game Score 6.8).
- Simulation: Pittsburgh win 3,780 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Pittsburgh may not
- Buffalo's offense (112.6 points per 100 possessions, 91st in Division I) meets a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 208th.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Buffalo 63rd (0.29), Pittsburgh 326th (0.21) of 365.
- Three-point shooting: Buffalo 24th (37.2%), Pittsburgh 171st (34.0%) of 365.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Pittsburgh lose by 7 or more.
- Team matchup: where Buffalo can push back. Their shooting efficiency (40th of 365) meets the Pittsburgh shooting defense (262nd), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their ball pressure (110th of 365) meets the Pittsburgh ball security (213th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Pittsburgh on paper, but Noah Batchelor (7.3 pts, 4.6 reb, 1.3 ast, Game Score 6.8) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Buffalo win 1,220 of 5,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
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Who's out
BUF Buffalo
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
PITT Pittsburgh
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideRankings
| BUF | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| -0.6 190 | Net rating | -0.2 184 |
| 112.6 91 | Offensive rating | 109.1 156 |
| 113.3 295 | Defensive rating | 109.3 208 |
| -0.1 175 | Strength of schedule | +1.2 88 |
| 54.8% 40 | Effective FG% | 51.3% 178 |
| 55.4% 336 | Opponent eFG% | 52.9% 262 |
| 16.1 140 | Turnovers per 100 | 17.2 213 |
| 26.7% 308 | Offensive rebound % | 33.9% 71 |
| 37.2% 24 | 3-point % | 34.0% 171 |
| 68.4 208 | Pace | 65.3 339 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 1 meeting
- Buffalo 79 @ Pittsburgh 84Dec 7, 2016
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