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WAKE

Wake Forest @ #24 Vanderbilt

NCAAB · · Memorial Gymnasium (TN)

VAN

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
VANVanderbilt Commodores
87% to win
ModelWAKE 13%VAN 87%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 87% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetVAN -12.5
Totaln/a156.3
Moneylinen/aWAKE +663
VAN -663 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
VAN 84, WAKE 72
8 in 10 games
WAKE by 2 to VAN by 26
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Vanderbilt can win

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Vanderbilt about 4.7 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Home court: Vanderbilt play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  3. Vanderbilt's offense (121.2 points per 100 possessions, 8th in Division I) meets a Wake Forest defense that ranks 196th.
  4. Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Vanderbilt in our ratings.
  5. Team matchup: where Vanderbilt can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (27th of 365) meets the Wake Forest shooting defense (193rd), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their offensive rebounding (148th of 365) meets the Wake Forest defensive rebounding (300th): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Tyler Tanner (Vanderbilt: 19.5 pts, 3.6 reb, 5.1 ast, Game Score 17.5) has the edge on Tre'Von Spillers (Wake Forest: 11.2 pts, 5.8 reb, 1.7 ast, Game Score 10.5).
  7. Simulation: Vanderbilt win 4,345 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Vanderbilt may not

  1. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Vanderbilt lose by 2 or more.
  2. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  3. Who plays: college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
  4. Young rosters: freshmen and transfers can change a team's level from one month to the next.
  5. Team matchup: a strength Vanderbilt may not get to use. Their ball pressure (90th of 365) meets the Wake Forest ball security (97th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Vanderbilt on paper, but Tre'Von Spillers (11.2 pts, 5.8 reb, 1.7 ast, Game Score 10.5) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Wake Forest win 655 of 5,000 simulations (13%). A 87% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

WAKE Wake Forest

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

VAN Vanderbilt

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

WAKEVAN
1-0Record1-0
+3.4 118Net rating+16.5 17
112.5 95Offensive rating121.2 8
109.1 196Defensive rating104.7 85
+2.0 37Strength of schedule+2.7 16
52.9% 110Effective FG%55.6% 27
51.6% 193Opponent eFG%48.8% 61
15.5 97Turnovers per 10013.7 15
30.1% 198Offensive rebound %31.4% 148
34.0% 1703-point %35.6% 84
70.2 111Pace70.9 84

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 2 meetings

  • Vanderbilt 98 @ Wake Forest 67Dec 21, 2025
  • Vanderbilt 86 vs Wake Forest 64Nov 24, 2015

What if?

Wake Forest13%
87%Vanderbilt

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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