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CP

Cal Poly @ #5 Arizona

NCAAB · · McKale Center at ALKEME Arena

ARIZ

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
ARIZArizona Wildcats
99% to win
ModelCP 1%ARIZ 99%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: even a pick this strong still loses about 1 time in 100.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetARIZ -25.3
Totaln/a165.9
Moneylinen/aCP +8991
ARIZ -8991 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
ARIZ 94, CP 70
8 in 10 games
ARIZ by 11 to ARIZ by 38
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Arizona can win

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Arizona about 15.3 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.7 points to Arizona in our ratings.
  3. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Arizona 7th (+22.5), Cal Poly 253rd (-5.2) of 365.
  4. Arizona's offense (119.8 points per 100 possessions, 14th in Division I) meets a Cal Poly defense that ranks 268th.
  5. Team matchup: where Arizona can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (53rd of 365) meets the Cal Poly shooting defense (293rd), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their offensive rebounding (5th of 365) meets the Cal Poly defensive rebounding (140th): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: no key position favors Arizona, so they need their depth to beat the other side's stars, with Brayden Burries (16.1 pts, 4.9 reb, 2.4 ast, Game Score 12.9) leading the way.
  7. Simulation: Arizona win 4,945 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Arizona may not

  1. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  2. Who plays: college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
  3. Young rosters: freshmen and transfers can change a team's level from one month to the next.
  4. Small samples: early-season numbers come from a handful of games against very different opponents.
  5. Team matchup: Cal Poly have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Hamad Mousa (Cal Poly: 20.3 pts, 6.3 reb, 1.9 ast, Game Score 14.5) has the edge on Brayden Burries (Arizona: 16.1 pts, 4.9 reb, 2.4 ast, Game Score 12.9).
  7. Upset odds: Cal Poly win 55 of 5,000 simulations (1%). Even a pick this strong still loses about 1 time in 100.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

CP Cal Poly

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

ARIZ Arizona

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

CPARIZ
0-0Record0-1
-5.2 253Net rating+22.5 7
106.5 212Offensive rating119.8 14
111.7 268Defensive rating97.3 9
-0.5 221Strength of schedule+2.9 8
51.5% 169Effective FG%54.4% 53
53.8% 293Opponent eFG%45.3% 4
19.9 343Turnovers per 10015.1 71
30.0% 206Offensive rebound %38.1% 5
33.0% 2213-point %36.0% 54
76.4 1Pace71.7 47

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 2 meetings

  • Cal Poly 61 @ Arizona 82Nov 11, 2018
  • Cal Poly 62 @ Arizona 73Nov 8, 2013

What if?

Cal Poly1%
99%Arizona

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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