- Pennsylvania 0-0 · Ivy 0-0, 7th
- Illinois AP #3 · 1-0 · Big Ten 0-0, 1st · W1
Game day
Tip-offThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ILL -23.4 |
| Total | n/a | 152.6 |
| Moneyline | n/a | PENN +6310 ILL -6310 fair |
No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. We add it as soon as one posts.
5,000 simulated games
- Typical score
- ILL 87, PENN 65
- 8 in 10 games
- ILL by 8 to ILL by 36
Advantages Why Illinois can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Illinois about 14.1 points stronger over recent games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.0 points to Illinois in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Illinois 4th (+24.0), Pennsylvania 180th (-0.0) of 365.
- Home court: Illinois play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Team matchup: where Illinois can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (3rd of 365) meets the Pennsylvania defensive rebounding (220th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their shooting efficiency (34th of 365) meets the Pennsylvania shooting defense (222nd): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Keaton Wagler (Illinois: 17.9 pts, 5.1 reb, 4.2 ast, Game Score 14.9) has the edge on TJ Power (Pennsylvania: 16.4 pts, 7.6 reb, 2.4 ast, Game Score 12.4).
- Simulation: Illinois win 4,920 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Illinois may not
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Pennsylvania 135th (17.3), Illinois 364th (11.7) of 365.
- Three-point shooting: Pennsylvania 11th (38.3%), Illinois 134th (34.7%) of 365.
- Weak spot: Illinois rank 364th of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (11.7).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Team matchup: Pennsylvania have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Illinois on paper, but TJ Power (16.4 pts, 7.6 reb, 2.4 ast, Game Score 12.4) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Pennsylvania win 80 of 5,000 simulations (2%). Even a pick this strong still loses about 2 times in 100.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Who's out
PENN Pennsylvania
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
ILL Illinois
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideRankings
| PENN | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| -0.0 180 | Net rating | +24.0 4 |
| 107.3 198 | Offensive rating | 126.1 1 |
| 107.4 149 | Defensive rating | 102.0 47 |
| +0.1 158 | Strength of schedule | +2.8 14 |
| 50.4% 222 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 34 |
| 52.1% 222 | Opponent eFG% | 46.9% 20 |
| 15.3 83 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.0 6 |
| 30.0% 203 | Offensive rebound % | 39.7% 3 |
| 38.3% 11 | 3-point % | 34.7% 134 |
| 69.3 158 | Pace | 66.8 291 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 1 meeting
- Pennsylvania 70 vs Illinois 105Mar 19, 2026 · Postseason
Your pick
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What changed
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What if?
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