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CHST

Chicago State @ Incarnate Word

NCAAB · · McDermott Center

UIW

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
UIWIncarnate Word Cardinals
79% to win
ModelCHST 21%UIW 79%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetUIW -8.7
Totaln/a143.4
Moneylinen/aCHST +384
UIW -384 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
UIW 80, CHST 71
8 in 10 games
CHST by 5 to UIW by 23
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Incarnate Word can win

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Incarnate Word about 3.2 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Home court: Incarnate Word play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  3. Incarnate Word's offense (106.7 points per 100 possessions, 209th in Division I) meets a Chicago State defense that ranks 343rd.
  4. Three-point shooting: Incarnate Word 49th (36.1%), Chicago State 270th (32.1%) of 365.
  5. Team matchup: where Incarnate Word can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (141st of 365) meets the Chicago State defensive rebounding (348th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their shooting efficiency (228th of 365) meets the Chicago State shooting defense (359th): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Davion Bailey (Incarnate Word: 18.6 pts, 3.4 reb, 2.0 ast, Game Score 10.9) has the edge on CJ Ray (Chicago State: 13.5 pts, 4.7 reb, 1.5 ast, Game Score 9.0).
  7. Simulation: Incarnate Word win 3,965 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Incarnate Word may not

  1. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Incarnate Word lose by 5 or more.
  2. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Chicago State 123rd (15.8), Incarnate Word 241st (17.6) of 365.
  3. Weak spot: Incarnate Word rank 321st of 365 in defense, points allowed per 100 possessions (115.0).
  4. Weak spot: Incarnate Word rank 313th of 365 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (54.4%).
  5. Team matchup: where Chicago State can push back. Their ball pressure (23rd of 365) meets the Incarnate Word ball security (241st), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Incarnate Word on paper, but CJ Ray (13.5 pts, 4.7 reb, 1.5 ast, Game Score 9.0) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Chicago State win 1,035 of 5,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

CHST Chicago State

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

UIW Incarnate Word

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

CHSTUIW
0-1Record0-1
-19.0 353Net rating-8.3 287
98.2 338Offensive rating106.7 209
117.2 343Defensive rating115.0 321
-0.7 253Strength of schedule-0.2 180
45.3% 355Effective FG%50.2% 228
57.3% 359Opponent eFG%54.4% 313
15.8 123Turnovers per 10017.6 241
28.2% 255Offensive rebound %31.6% 141
32.1% 2703-point %36.1% 49
66.2 307Pace65.7 325

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What if?

Chicago State21%
79%Incarnate Word

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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