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MERC

Mercyhurst @ Notre Dame

NCAAB · · Purcell Pavilion

ND

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
NDNotre Dame Fighting Irish
80% to win
ModelMERC 20%ND 80%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetND -9.2
Totaln/a143.7
Moneylinen/aMERC +405
ND -405 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
ND 79, MERC 70
8 in 10 games
MERC by 5 to ND by 23
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Notre Dame can win

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Notre Dame about 3.6 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Home court: Notre Dame play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  3. Strength of schedule: Notre Dame 61st (+1.7), Mercyhurst 351st (-1.8) of 365.
  4. Three-point shooting: Notre Dame 73rd (35.7%), Mercyhurst 311th (31.3%) of 365.
  5. Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Notre Dame. The nearest thing to one: their offensive rebounding (145th of 365) meets the Mercyhurst defensive rebounding (197th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
  6. Star matchup: no key position favors Notre Dame, so they need their depth to beat the other side's stars, with Braeden Shrewsberry (12.0 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.0 ast, Game Score 7.7) leading the way.
  7. Simulation: Notre Dame win 4,010 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Notre Dame may not

  1. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Mercyhurst 47th (14.6), Notre Dame 188th (16.9) of 365.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Notre Dame lose by 5 or more.
  3. Weak spot: Notre Dame rank 325th of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (14.4).
  4. Weak spot: Notre Dame rank 250th of 365 in defense, points allowed per 100 possessions (110.9).
  5. Team matchup: where Mercyhurst can push back. Their ball pressure (65th of 365) meets the Notre Dame ball security (188th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Bernie Blunt III (Mercyhurst: 17.6 pts, 3.1 reb, 2.2 ast, Game Score 12.1) has the edge on Braeden Shrewsberry (Notre Dame: 12.0 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.0 ast, Game Score 7.7); at forward, Qadir Martin (Mercyhurst: 11.6 pts, 7.0 reb, 1.0 ast, Game Score 11.6) has the edge on Carson Towt (Notre Dame: 5.9 pts, 9.0 reb, 1.7 ast, Game Score 7.2).
  7. Upset odds: Mercyhurst win 990 of 5,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

MERC Mercyhurst

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

ND Notre Dame

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

MERCND
0-1Record1-0
-2.2 212Net rating-1.2 195
102.9 284Offensive rating109.7 140
105.1 96Defensive rating110.9 250
-1.8 351Strength of schedule+1.7 61
49.0% 288Effective FG%51.9% 155
50.2% 114Opponent eFG%51.9% 212
14.6 47Turnovers per 10016.9 188
26.6% 309Offensive rebound %31.5% 145
31.3% 3113-point %35.7% 73
65.6 330Pace67.8 237

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What if?

Mercyhurst20%
80%Notre Dame

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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