Game day
Tip-offThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | UVM -1.7 |
| Total | n/a | 140.1 |
| Moneyline | n/a | UVM -127 FAIR +127 fair |
No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. We add it as soon as one posts.
5,000 simulated games
- Typical score
- FAIR 75, UVM 76
- 8 in 10 games
- UVM by 16 to FAIR by 12
Advantages Why Vermont can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Vermont about 5.9 points stronger over recent games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Vermont in our ratings.
- Strength: Vermont rank 2nd of 365 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (76.7%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Vermont 2nd (76.7%), Fairfield 111th (70.9%) of 365.
- Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Vermont. The nearest thing to one: their shooting efficiency (108th of 365) meets the Fairfield shooting defense (159th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
- Star matchup: no key position clearly favors Vermont. The closest: best player against best player, Gus Yalden (Vermont: 16.1 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.1 ast, Game Score 11.9) is about even with Braden Sparks (Fairfield: 17.2 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.6 ast, Game Score 11.4).
- Simulation: Vermont win 2,795 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Vermont may not
- Home court: Fairfield play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Fairfield 29th (35.8%), Vermont 311th (26.6%) of 365.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Vermont lose by 12 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Fairfield 166th (16.8), Vermont 297th (14.9) of 365.
- Team matchup: Fairfield have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Vermont on paper, but Braden Sparks (17.2 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.6 ast, Game Score 11.4) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Fairfield win 2,205 of 5,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
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Who's out
UVM Vermont
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
FAIR Fairfield
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideRankings
| UVM | FAIR | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-0 |
| +5.0 97 | Net rating | +1.5 157 |
| 110.0 132 | Offensive rating | 108.3 178 |
| 105.0 88 | Defensive rating | 106.8 135 |
| -1.6 339 | Strength of schedule | -2.1 360 |
| 52.9% 108 | Effective FG% | 48.8% 294 |
| 50.2% 116 | Opponent eFG% | 51.0% 159 |
| 14.6 43 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.3 84 |
| 26.6% 311 | Offensive rebound % | 35.8% 29 |
| 33.1% 219 | 3-point % | 33.2% 213 |
| 65.1 345 | Pace | 67.3 268 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 3 meetings
- Vermont 66 vs Fairfield 67Nov 24, 2024
- Vermont 59 @ Fairfield 67Dec 20, 2010
- Fairfield 67 @ Vermont 77Feb 20, 2010
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